欧佩克内部尚未达成长期减产协议 油价下跌

据6月4日Rigzone报道，油价从三个月高位回落，因欧佩克+各国在长期减产计划方面存在分歧，且美国当前经济数据令市场对需求复苏力度产生怀疑。

纽约期货价格下跌约2%，至每桶37美元以下，此前曾收于3月6日以来最高点。知情人士表示，沙特和俄罗斯已达成一项初步协议，将产量限制期限再延长一个月，但前提是其他成员国在未来几个月内进一步减产，以弥补未能达到减产协议规定份额。

美国能源信息署(EIA)数据显示，美国柴油需求上周降至21年低点，汽油库存激增。这些数据表明，这个全球最大石油消费国燃油消耗量并没有像此前预期那样迅速复苏。

尽管油价自4月中旬以来迅速反弹，但在几次不利因素影响下，反弹势头屡屡受挫。截至伦敦时间早上7点36分，纽约商品交易所7月份交割A西德克萨斯中质原油价格下跌1.7%，至每桶36.65美元，周三曾上涨1.3%。欧洲期货交易所(ICE Futures Europe exchAnge) 8月份交割的布伦特原油期货价格下跌1%，至39.39美元/桶，而在前一个交易日，布伦特原油交易价格近三个月来首次超过40美元/桶。

荷兰国际集团银行（INGAAnk NV）大宗商品策略主管沃伦?帕特森（WArren PAtterson）表示：“欧佩克+所做决定将是未来一周价格走势关键，产量限制协议或会延长将为油价提供有限上行空间。不过，油价上涨与炼油利润率疲弱之间存在脱节，这表明至少在近期内，油价上涨已经有点超前。”

沙特与俄罗斯一致认为，7月份，将继续在当前水平上削减产量。下一次会议上定于6月9日至10日召开，若不能得到伊拉克等国家做出承诺，欧佩克+在2020年剩余时间内A石油减产规模将放宽至770万桶/天。

欧佩克+各国之间分歧正达到顶峰，随着油价上涨已经刺激了一些美国生产商恢复生产，美国最大页岩油生产商EOG Resources Inc.和二叠纪钻井公司PArsley Energy Inc.准备在关闭生产数周后提高产量。

美国能源信息署数据显示，上周美国柴油供应下降17%，至每日272万桶，汽油库存增加280万桶，增幅高于预期。原油整体库存减少210万桶，库欣库存连续第四周下降。

王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Down on OPEC+ Discord and US Demand Data

Oil retreated from a three-month high as OPEC+ unity was threatened by a long-running feud over complying with production cutbacks, while U.S. data cast doubt on the strength of the demand recovery.

Futures in New York fell around 2% to below $37 a barrel after closing at the highest since March 6. Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a preliminary deal to extend output curbs for an extra month, but it’s conditional on other members making deeper cuts in the months ahead to make up for past non-compliance, people familiar with the matter said. The two leading producers have lost their patience with the errant behavior of the next-biggest, Iraq.

Meanwhile in the U.S., diesel demand fell to a 21-year low last week and gasoline stockpiles swelled, according to Energy Information Administration data. The figures suggest that fuel consumption in the world’s largest oil consumer isn’t recovering as quickly as previously anticipated.

While oil prices have rebounded rapidly since mid-April, the rally is faltering amid several headwinds. The White House is suspending passenger flights from Chinese airlines as relations between the world’s two biggest economies continue to worsen, while civil unrest across the U.S. is complicating the economic recovery from the virus and risking a second wave of infections.

West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped 1.7% to $36.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:36 a.m. in London after rising 1.3% on Wednesday. Brent for August settlement declined 1% to $39.39 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after trading above $40 for the first time in almost three months in the previous session.

“The OPEC+ decision will be key for price direction over the next week, with a potential extension providing some limited upside,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV. However, there’s a disconnect between the rise in oil prices and weak refining margins, suggesting the rally has gotten a bit ahead of itself at least in the near term, he said.

Riyadh and Moscow are aligned on continuing cuts at the current level for an extra month beyond July 1. But if they don’t receive assurances from Iraq and the other laggards at their next meeting -- scheduled for June 9-10 -- the group’s daily supply curbs will ease to 7.7 million barrels for the rest of 2020.

The OPEC+ disagreements are coming to a head as higher prices have already spurred some U.S. producers to bring wells back online. EOG Resources Inc., America’s largest shale-focused producer, and Permian driller Parsley Energy Inc. are preparing to ramp up output just weeks after turning off the taps.

Diesel supplied in the U.S. tumbled 17% to 2.72 million barrels a day last week, according to the EIA, while gasoline inventories rose by a higher-than forecast 2.8 million barrels. Overall crude stockpiles fell by 2.1 million barrels and inventories at the storage hub at Cushing declined for a fourth week.