欧佩克同意延长创纪录的减产协议

据今日油价6月6日报道，欧佩克及其合作伙伴于6月6日下午结束了会议，宣布将延长目前的减产协议。

欧佩克现任主席、阿尔及利亚能源部长穆罕默德?阿尔卡布(Mohamed Arkab)总结了欧佩克的观点，称:“尽管迄今取得了进展，但我们不能坐以待毙。”

最近几天，沙特与其他欧佩克成员国以及俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和阿塞拜疆等非欧佩克国家进行了谈判，决定将目前每天970万桶的减产规模至少再延长一个月。

参与创纪录减产的大多数国家都愿意继续当前的协议，但尼日利亚、哈萨克斯坦等国的履约不力引起了欧佩克其他成员国的不满，不过，其中一些国家甚至比4月份商定的减产幅度更大。

在上周六的线上会议上，欧佩克同意，那些在5月和6月未能完全达标的国家，将必须在7月、8月和9月作出补偿性减产。

随着全球需求开始复苏，创纪录的减产和全球范围内的油井关闭，缓解了巨大的供应过剩危机，5月份油价实际上翻了一番。

虽然欧佩克+协议的延长无疑会对市场产生利好影响，但油价周一不太可能大幅上涨，因为欧佩克+的消息已经在很大程度上反映在价格中了。

油价要想全面复苏，就必须恢复全球需求，减少原油库存，这两项工作可能都需要长达两年的时间。Pioneer的斯科特谢菲尔德（Scott Sheffield）表示，随着许多经济体“重新开放”，需求迅速反弹至每天9400万至9500万桶。值得注意的是，需求反弹将停滞，他表示，需求在2022年甚至2023年之前都不会达到之前的水平。

就目前而言，沙特阿美可能是推动油价上涨的下一个催化剂，该公司有望在周一发布官方销售价格（OSPs），从而为6月份的油价上涨做好铺垫。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

OPEC+ Agrees On Extending Record Output Cuts

OPEC and its partners concluded their meeting on Saturday afternoon, announcing that it would extend its current production cut deal.

Algeria’s Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab, OPEC’s current President summed up the group’s sentiment by saying that "Despite the progress achieved to date, we cannot afford to rest on our laurels,''.

The last couple of days, the cartel’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia negotiated with other OPEC members and some non-OPEC countries including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to extend the current 9.7 million bpd output cuts for at least another month.

Most countries partaking in the record production cuts were willing to continue the current deal, but poor compliance from countries like Nigeria and Kazakhstan has caused discontent among other OPEC members, some of which have even made deeper cuts than agreed on in April.

During the virtual meeting on Saturday, the cartel agreed that the countries that were unable to reach full conformity in May and June will have to compensate for this in July, August and September.

Oil prices effectively doubled during the month of May as global demand started to recover and record output cuts and worldwide well shut-ins decreased the monster glut.

While the OPEC+ deal extension undoubtedly will have a bullish effect on markets, prices aren’t likely to rip much higher on Monday as the OPEC+ news has largely been priced in already.

For oil prices to make a full recovery, global demand will have to recover and crude inventories have to be drawn down, both of which will likely take up to two years. Pioneer’s Scott Sheffield said that the quick rebound of demand to around 94-95 mb/d following the “reopening” of so many economies will give way to stagnation, saying that demand won’t reach pre-pandemic levels until 2022 or even 2023.

For now, the next bullish catalyst for oil could come from Saudi Aramco, which could set the trend for higher oil prices in June as it is expected to release its OSPs (official selling prices) on Monday.