全球液化天然气市场受冲击

据今日油价6月8日报道，原油并不是5月份表现最差的能源大宗商品，这可能会让一些人感到震惊。从那些新闻标题中有关原油的篇幅来看，大家自然会认为，没有任何一种能源大宗商品的情况会比原油更糟糕。

但LNG却做到了这一点，而且可能还将面临更大的压力。LNG现货价格自4月以来一直在下滑，5月底触至每百万英国热量1.85美元的历史低点。与原油一样，其主要原因是供需之间的巨大差距。在疫情爆发前，供需差距已经很大，但现在的差距更大。

货物订单被取消，尤其是从美国到亚洲和欧洲的货物订单。据计算，6月和7月至少有20批货物被取消。需求受到抑制，随后将流入LNG出口设施的天然气流量推至13年低点，这也表明更多痛苦即将到来。

LNG如何在当前世界经济中发挥作用是很重要的，或许比石油更为重要。据路透社报道，在停工期间，LNG的需求比石油需求更具弹性，这可能是因为LNG用于发电，其需求比运输部门对燃料的需求更为稳定。

如果社交封锁可能会对这种弹性需求产生影响，以至于分析师们开始谈论历史最低价格，并对市场持续波动发出警告，那么大家所期待的LNG光明前景可能不会以大家所期待形式实现。

例如，最近发布的一份LNG行业展望预测显示，美国将在未来五年内增加最大份额的LNG出口能力，达到每年1.451亿吨。紧随其后的是俄罗斯和墨西哥，俄罗斯预计将增加3120万吨LNG产能，墨西哥将每年增加1170万吨产能。但是，如果价格继续疲软，所有这些产能的实现将不能得到保证。

并不是所有目标都能实现，至少在这个时间框架内不会实现。例如，在与印度Petronet的初步承运协议到期后，Tellurian在路易斯安那州的Driftwood LNG项目已经面临延期。与此同时，位于德克萨斯州的另一个LNG项目Golden Pass的产能也从每年1560万吨提高到1810万吨，目前该项目正在建设中。

在其他地区，莫桑比克是全球新兴的LNG热点地区之一，而埃克森美孚对其Rovuma LNG项目的最终投资决定已经被推迟，可能要等到明年。尽管埃克森美孚已与Rovuma签订了天然气的长期承购协议，但此次延期却是一个事实。

与此同时，它在当地的竞争对手道达尔即将敲定一项150亿美元的融资方案，用于其在莫桑比克的LNG项目。其中一家参与融资的银行表示，在当前市场环境下，这是一个了不起的成就，因为每个人都在为钱发愁，而银行在决定把钱给谁时要谨慎得多。据国际天然气联盟(International gas Union)的数据，这个价值200亿美元的莫桑比克LNG项目，将使全球LNG总产能每年增加1290万吨。截至今年年底，全球的总产能为4.4585亿吨。

上周天然气价格有所改善，这推动了美国LNG出口的改善，凸显了这两者之间的相互依赖性。但价格的改善一点儿也不能确定，尤其是如果这个全球最大的LNG生产商决定像沙特那样发动一场价格战的话。

卡塔尔一直感受到来自澳大利亚和美国的越来越大的压力，这两个国家最近一直在以惊人的速度扩大LNG出口能力，夺取一度被视为安全的市场份额。彭博社的Verity Ratcliffe和Anna Shiryaevskaya称，随着供应持续过剩，以及更多LNG出口能力的增加，卡塔尔现在有两个选择，一是减少产量以提高价格；二是提高产量并进一步降低价格以消除竞争。

这种策略此前也奏效过，但存在一个缺点，那就是可能会造成负价格。另一种方向可能是，生产商或会因价格在市场形成联盟，在理论上可以对全球LNG市场产生价格控制能力。

无论价格和生产如何变化，能源行业存在对亚洲市场的过度依赖。迄今为止，亚洲是LNG需求增长的最大单一来源。当这种需求增长受到遏制时，价格暴跌。然而，LNG的优势在于，长期而言，它的需求将会增长，这就是为什么当主要亚洲市场的需求开始复苏时，其价格也开始小幅上涨。

一些新的LNG项目可能会推迟一到两年，直到价格稳定下来。LNG行业已经成为一个竞争极其激烈的领域，可以说有太多的生产商在持续的低价环境下争夺市场份额。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Global LNG Markets Crushed By Global Pandemic

It may come as a shock to some, but crude oil wasn’t the worst-performing energy commodity in May. Judging by the headline space devoted to it, one would naturally assume no energy commodity could have it worse than crude.

But LNG did, and more pressure may be on the way.

LNG spot prices have been on the slide since April, reaching an all-time low of $1.85 per million British thermal units at the end of May. As with crude oil, the reason was very much the wide gap between supply and demand, already substantial before the coronavirus lockdowns but made even wider than them.

Cargos were canceled, too, notably from the United States to Asia and Europe, with the number calculated at a minimum of 20 cargos for June and July. This dampened demand then pushed gas flows into LNG export facilities to a 13-year-low, suggesting that more pain was on the way.

How LNG is faring in the Covid-19 world is important. It is perhaps more important than how oil is faring. Demand for LNG, according to Reuters reports, was more resilient than oil demand during the lockdowns, possibly because LNG is, among other things, used for electricity generation and that enjoys more stable demand than the transport sector enjoys demand for fuel.

If the coronavirus lockdowns could affect this resilient demand to such an extent as to have analysts talking about all-time price lows and warning about continued volatility, then the bright future of LNG that everyone is anticipating may not materialize in the shape everyone has been expecting.

For instance, a recently released outlook for the LNG industry projects that the United States will add the largest share of new LNG export capacity over the next five years, at 145.1 million tons per year. It will be followed by Russia, which is expected to add 31.2 million tons of LNG capacity, and Mexico, to add 11.7 million tons per year in new capacity. But will all these additions happen if prices remain weak?

Not all of them will happen, at least not in that timeframe. Tellurian, for example, is already facing a delay for its Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana after its preliminary offtake agreement with India’s Petronet expired. At the same time, another LNG project, Golden Pass in Texas, is boosting its nameplate capacity to 18.1 million tons annually from 15.6 million tons. The Golden Pass facility is currently under construction.

Signals are mixed outside the United States as well. Exxon’s final investment decision for the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique—one of the emerging hotspots for LNG globally—has been delayed, possibly until next year. The delay is a fact despite Exxon’s securing long-term offtake agreements for gas from Rovuma.

At the same time, its local rival, Total, is about to finalize a $15-billion financing package for its own LNG project in Mozambique. This, according to one of the banks taking part in the financing, is a remarkable achievement in the current market circumstances when everyone is strained for money, and banks are a lot more cautious who they give it to. The $20-billion Mozambique LNG project will add 12.9 million tons of liquefied gas annually to the world’s total production capacity seen at 454.85 million tons annually at the end of this year, up by 24.35 million tons from last year, according to the International Gas Union.

That is, unless prices fall further.

The last week has seen an improvement in prices, and this has driven an improvement in U.S. LNG exports, highlighting the mutual dependence of these two. But the price improvement is not at all certain, especially if the world’s top producer of LNG decides to start a price war, Saudi-style.

Qatar has been feeling increasing pressure from Australia and, lately, the United States, which have been expanding their LNG export capacity at breakneck speeds, grabbing market share once considered secure. Now, with oversupply persistent and still more LNG export capacity additions on the way, Qatar, according to Bloomberg’s Verity Ratcliffe and Anna Shiryaevskaya, has two options: reduce production to boost prices or boost it and sink prices further to eliminate the competition.

The flooding tactic has worked before, but it has a bad habit of hurting the one deploying it along with its targets. Negative prices are one likely outcome of such a war. Yet, another outcome might be a consolidation of producers into a group that could hypothetically yield price-controlling power over the global LNG market.

Wherever prices—and production—goes from here, the coronavirus pandemic seems to be having a marked effect on yet another segment of the energy industry, highlighting the weak spots along with its strong points. Among the former, there is the over-reliance on Asia, which is by far the largest single source of LNG demand growth. When pandemic killed this demand growth, prices plunged. Yet, the strong point of LNG is that demand for it over the long term will grow, which is why when demand began to recover in the key Asian markets, prices also began to inch up.

It is possible that some new LNG projects will be delayed by a year or two until prices stabilize. If they stabilize. The LNG industry has become an extremely competitive place, with arguably too many producers fighting for market share in a persistent low-price environment. ?