原油和凝析油供小于求将持续到2021年

据油田技术6月10日报道，雷斯塔能源分析显示，被迫停产的石油和慷慨的欧佩克+自愿减产措施延长至7月，不仅将平衡全球原油和凝析油需求，而且规模足以从2020年6月开始造成每月石油供应小于需求，并至少持续到明年年底。

今年早些时候导致WTI油价下跌的供过于求状况已经成为过去，只要欧佩克+继续严格遵守协议，石油需求复苏轨迹不会发生根本改变。上个石油供应过剩月份似乎是5月份，当时原油和凝析油的日产量比需求高出约610万桶。

现在看来，6月份全球石油日产量将出现约150万桶的缺口。预计将7月扩大到460万桶/天，8月将达到420万桶/天，在2020年剩余时间缺口略微减少后，将在2021年1月达到520万桶/天的峰值。尽管供应小于需求的情况在那之后会有所缓解，Rystad估计这种情况将会持续到明年。

Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjrnar Tonhaugen表示：“通过迅速收紧即期市场，帮助压低价格，并创造一个有利于迅速缓解石油储备的供应环境，从而创造一个小的牛市周期，因为供应相较需求的减少将引发库存大量减少。”

Rystad Energy估计，在2020年剩下的几个月里，全球原油和凝析油日产量将维持在8000万桶以下。6月原油日产量可能达到7140万桶，并将逐月增长，到12月将达到7840万桶的峰值。

另一方面，2020年6月需求将达到7290万桶/天，从9月开始将超过8000万桶/天，12月达到8230万桶/天的月度最高水平。

然而，如果油价继续稳步上升，将刺激美国部分停产产能恢复生产。此外，如果钻探商提前结束停产期，美国原油产量恢复的速度可能会快于欧佩克+的预期，从而弥补部分供需逆差。

王佳晶 摘译自 油田技术

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: Fresh OPEC+ cuts point to crude and condensate supply deficits through 2021

The forced oil production shutdowns and the extension of the generous OPEC+ voluntary cuts into July will not only balance the Covid-19-hit global crude and condensate demand, but are deep enough to create a monthly deficit starting from June 2020 and continuing uninterrupted until at least the end of next year, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.

The oversupply, which sent WTI oil prices into the negative earlier this year, is a thing of the past as long as OPEC+ compliance stays strong and the oil demand recovery trajectory is not radically altered. The last surplus month appears to have been May, when crude and condensate production exceeded demand by about 6.1 million bpd.

June is now already set for a global production deficit of about 1.5 million bpd. The imbalance is forecast to reach 4.6 million bpd in July, 4.2 million bpd in August and, after being reduced a little during the remainder of 2020, peak at 5.2 million bpd in January 2021. Although the shortfall will ease after that, Rystad Energy estimates that monthly deficits will remain throughout next year.

“We believe OPEC+ is attempting to create a mini-bull-cycle by quickly tightening the prompt market, helping depressed prices and creating a supply environment that will facilitate a rapid relief of oil storages, as deficits will trigger large stock draws,“ said Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets Bj?rnar Tonhaugen.

Rystad Energy estimates that global crude and condensate production will stay below 80 million bpd for all the remaining months of 2020. Output will likely reach 71.4 million bpd in June and grow monthly to a high of 78.4 million bpd in December.

Demand, on the other hand, is set to reach 72.9 million bpd already in June 2020 and exceed 80 million bpd from September onwards, reaching an annual monthly high of 82.3 million bpd in December.

“However, if the oil price continues its steady ascension, this will spur reactivation of parts of the curtailed US oil production. Also, if frac crews end their holidays early, US volumes may be coming back more quickly than OPEC+ expects, bridging part of the deficit,“ added Tonhaugen.