美国2020年原油产量降幅将高于预期

据6月10日Oil Monster消息：美国能源信息署(EIA)周二表示，2020年美国原油产量将下降67万桶/天，至1,156万桶/天，与之前预测的54万桶/天相比，下降幅度更大，原因是钻探活动大幅减少。

据估计，美国石油和其他液体燃料消耗量将减少240万桶/天，至1,806万桶/天，而此前的预测为减少219万桶/天。

由于疫情冲击了全球需求，并限制了旅行，今年油价暴跌。

EIA称，全球石油消费预计将减少830万桶/天，至9253万桶/天，降幅高于此前预测的815万桶/天。不过，随着各国放松封锁，全球需求已开始小幅上升。

"初步数据显示，全球石油市场的再平衡速度快于EIA此前的预测。"EIA署长琳达·卡普亚诺在一份声明中称。“我们预计，全球石油库存将从6月开始减少，原因是6月全球石油产量急剧下降，以及全球石油需求高于此前预期。”

石油输出国组织(OPEC)、俄罗斯和其他产油国4月同意每日减产970万桶。该组织上周六同意将减产维持到7月，约占全球供应量的10％。

北美各地的生产商也纷纷减产，美国的钻机数量已降至历史最低水平。

EIA预计美国原油产量将继续下降，到2021年3月将降至1,060万桶/天，而复苏迹象或将出现在2021年底。

2021年美国石油需求将增加140万桶/天，至1,946万桶，而EIA此前的预测为145万桶/天。

冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster

原文如下：

U.S. Crude Oil Output Decline in 2020 to be Steeper Than Previously Expected

U.S. crude output is set to fall by 670,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 11.56 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, steeper than the 540,000 bpd decline it forecast previously as drillers have slashed activity.

The agency now expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to plunge 2.4 million bpd to 18.06 million bpd in 2020 compared with its previous forecast for a drop of 2.19 million bpd.

Oil prices collapsed this year as the coronavirus pandemic slammed global demand and restricted travel across the world.

The EIA said 2020 world oil consumption is expected to plummet by 8.30 million bpd to 92.53 million bpd, a sharper slide than the 8.15 million bpd previously forecast.

However, demand across the world has started to edge higher with countries easing lockdowns and stay-at-home orders.

“Initial data show the global oil market rebalancing faster than EIA previously forecast,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement.

“We expect (global oil) inventories to begin drawing in June, as a result of sharper declines in global oil production during June and greater global oil demand than previously expected.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers agreed in April to cut supply by 9.7 million bpd. The group agreed on Saturday to sustain those cuts, equal to about 10% of global supply, through July.

Producers across North America have also slashed output and U.S. rig counts have fallen to a record low.

The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will continue to decline, to 10.6 million bpd in March 2021, then increase slightly through the end of 2021.

U.S. oil demand is expected to rise 1.4 million bpd to 19.46 million in 2021 compared with the EIA’s previous forecast for a rise of 1.45 million bpd.