今年全球天然气市场将经历史上最大需求冲击

据天然气新闻2020年6月10日伦敦报道，国际能源署（IEA）6月10日表示，由于疫情大流行打击了本已疲软的市场，今年全球天然气市场预计将经历“有记录以来最大的需求冲击”，今年全球天然气消费量将比去年下降4%。

IEA在最新的天然气年度报告中还说，尽管天然气需求预计将在2021年逐步复苏，但疫情大流行的中期影响将削弱全球天然气需求的增长。

IEA在报告中表示：“截至6月初，所有主要天然气市场都在经历需求下降或增长迟缓。”

IEA表示，尽管封锁措施正在逐步解除，但IEA的预测并没有假设经济会迅速复苏，导致今年需求减少1500亿立方米，或下降4%。

不过，IEA在4月底发布的《全球能源回顾》报告中对需求下降5%的初步估计有所上调。

IEA表示：“然而，影响的程度仍然是前所未有的。”

报告称：“这将是自20世纪后半期天然气市场大规模发展以来，有记录的最大年消费量下降，降幅将是2009年最新一次衰退的两倍，2009年全球天然气需求下降了2%。”

据初步估计，去年全球天然气消费量约为3.99万亿立方米，因此下降4%将使今年全球天然气需求回落至3.83 万亿立方米左右。

李峻 编译自 天然气新闻

原文如下：

Gas market to experience 'largest demand shock on record' in 2020: IEA

The global gas market is expected to experience its "largest demand shock on record" in 2020, the International Energy Agency said June 10, with consumption set to fall 4% on the year as the coronavirus pandemic hits an already weakened market.

In its latest annual gas report, the IEA also said that while gas demand was expected to recover gradually in 2021, the medium-term impact of the virus would dent gas demand growth.

"As of early June, all major gas markets are experiencing a fall in demand or sluggish growth at best as is the case of China," the IEA said.

The agency said that although lockdown measures are being gradually lifted, its forecasts do not assume that economies will recover promptly, leading to 150 Bcm of lost demand this year, or a 4% decline.

The decline in demand has, though, been revised up from an initial estimate of 5% demand decline published at the end of April in the IEA's Global Energy Review.

"The magnitude of the impact remains however unprecedented," the IEA said.

"This would be the largest recorded annual decrease in consumption since the gas market developed at scale in the second half of the 20th century, and the drop would be twice bigger than the latest downturn in 2009, when demand fell by 2%," it said.

Preliminary estimates put the world's gas consumption in 2019 at around 3.99 trillion cu m, so a 4% decline would see demand slip back to around 3.83 Tcm.