今年全球上游油气投资同比将猛减1560亿美元

据油价网6月11日奥斯陆报道，在上游行业第一季度业绩公布后，挪威雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）发表的一份分析报告显示，今年全球上游油气行业的投资预算状况比此前预期的更为悲观。据预测，今年全球上游油气行业支出预计将达到3830亿美元，为15年来的最低水平，与去年相比将减少惊人的29%，即减少1560亿美元。

去年全球上游油气投资估计为5390亿美元，今年这一降幅将使今年年度投资低于前一次低迷时期的水平。明年全球上游油气支出预计也将基本持平，仅略高于今年，为3860亿美元。在COVID-19大流行之前，雷斯塔能源公司曾预计，今年和明年全球上游油气投资总额将维持在去年的水平。

雷斯塔能源公司在分析报告中说： “我们预计今年全球页岩和致密油的投资将受到最大冲击，目前预计年降幅为52.2%，至673亿美元。油砂投资紧随其后，降幅为44%，至51亿美元。其他陆上投资预计今年将下降23.4%，至1824亿美元。

受投资缩水影响最小的行业是海上。据估计，今年全球海上深水支出估计将下降15.6%，至690亿美元，而海上大陆架的支出将减少约14%，至595亿美元。

由于此次影响将比上一次衰退更为严重，油气公司正在竭力捍卫股东价值，并在近期转向更为保守的支出策略。雷斯塔能源公司上游分析师奥尔加·萨温科娃说：“由于全球上游油气行业面临着低油价、需求下降和汇率波动的压力，每一次美元贬值都将直接影响到整个行业。”

危机开始时，由于运营商预算在之前的市场低迷中已经相当紧张，今年全球上游油气支出预计将下降15%至20%，比去年的总投资减少大约800亿至1000亿美元。但是，在这个新的价格现实中，运营商似乎被迫进一步削减支出。

从百分比来看，这个投资降幅与2014-2015年相仿。然而，这一次行业支出正在从较低的山顶掉到较深的谷底，这将很快——即使是在短期内——影响行业绩效。

在2014-2015年，由于油气公司能够调整和精简，27%的支出下降并没有显著影响生产绩效。相反，在所有供应部门，一些参与者甚至设法同比增加产量。由于关闭生产相关的成本太高，几乎没有生产被关闭，即使是在盈亏平衡价格最高的设施。削减支出主要是通过降低供应链成本和削减不必要的支出来实现的。

然而，由于今年几乎所有供应部门都将减产，石油行业维持高油价的能力正受到考验。从长期来看，减少棕地资本支出将使维持现有产量更具挑战性，而减少绿地资本支出将使新产量难以取代现有产量下降。这两个因素可能会影响未来全球液体供应的稳定性，从而彻底改变行业格局。

分析报告说：“我们的研究表明，到目前为止，全球约有125家勘探开发公司已经达成削减开支的协议，今年将削减1000亿美元。今年国家石油公司是全球削减开支的最大贡献者，减少320亿美元。大多数页岩运营商也修改了他们的资本指导范围。

虽然国家石油公司通常不会进行如此大幅度的削减，但在每桶油当量25美元的环境下，我们迎来了一个新的现实，即使是最可靠的公司也在勒紧裤腰带，准备进一步削减开支。重要的是，第一季度报告还显示，几乎所有石油巨头都将产量下降视为生存不可避免的一部分，他们选择优化现金流，提供可持续的股息。

萨温科娃总结说：“油气公司现在高度厌恶风险，财务和运营绩效面临巨大压力。然而，一旦危机过去，勘探和生产公司将需要为可能等待着他们的机会和威胁做好准备。他们未来的成功取决于他们在适应新的战略、利用新出现的机遇和降低风险方面的谨慎程度。”

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Upstream Oil & Gas Investment Crashes To 15-Year Low

Following the publication of the upstream industry’s first quarter results, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals a gloomier investment-budget picture than previously thought. Global spending is now forecasted to reach $383 billion this year, the lowest level in 15 years and a staggering 29% decrease of $156 billion compared to 2019.

With 2019’s upstream investments calculated at $539 billion, the decline is set to bring annual investment to a level lower than that of the previous downturn. Spending is also expected to be largely flat in 2021, landing only marginally higher than 2020 at $386 billion. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Rystad Energy expected total upstream investment would maintain last year’s levels, both in 2020 and 2021.

We expect shale and tight oil investments will take the biggest hit, now forecast to fall by 52.2% y/y to $67.3 billion. Oil sands investments will follow, with a decline of 44% to $5.1 billion. Other onshore investments are forecast to fall by 23.4% to $182.4 billion this year.

The sector which will be least affected in terms of deflated investment is offshore. Offshore deepwater spending is estimated to fall by 15.6% to $69 billion this year, while offshore shelf will lose about 14%, landing at $59.5 billion.

“As the impact will be more severe than in the previous downturn, companies are fiercely defending shareholder value and pivoting towards more conservative spending strategies in the near-term. As the global upstream sector contends with low prices, falling demand, and fluctuating exchange rates, every dollar cut will strike directly to the bone,” says Rystad Energy’s upstream analyst Olga Savenkova.

In the beginning of the crisis, it was assumed that global upstream spending would fall by around 15% to 20% in 2020 – around $80 billion to $100 billion below total investments in 2019 – as operator budgets were already quite lean after the previous market downturn. But, in this new price reality, it appears that operators were forced to cut even deeper.

In terms of percentages, the drop in investment is comparable to 2014–2015. However, this time around, industry spending is falling from a lower mountain to a deeper valley, which will very quickly affect industry performance, even in a short term.

In 2014-2015, the 27% fall in spending did not significantly impact production performance as companies were able to adapt and streamline. On the contrary, within all supply segments some players even managed to increase y/y production. Virtually no production was shut-in, even at the facilities with the highest breakeven prices, as the costs associated with shuttering production were too high. Spending cuts were mainly delivered through lower supply chain costs and by cutting out unnecessary expenses.

However, the industry’s ability to keep high costs per barrel is now being put to the test, with almost all supply segments cutting production in 2020. In the longer-term, reduced brownfield capex will make it more challenging to maintain existing production, while reduced greenfield capital spending will make it difficult to replace declines with new production coming on stream. These two factors could impact the stability of the global liquids supply in the future, changing the industry landscape for good.

Our research indicates that about 125 E&P’s have thus far communicated spending cuts, amounting to a reduction of $100 billion in 2020. National Oil Companies (NOCs) are the largest contributors to the global reduction, decreasing spending by $32 billion. Most shale operators have revised their capital guidance range as well.

Although NOCs would not normally be expected to make such drastic cuts, the $25 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) environment that we have experienced has ushered in a new reality, where even the most reliable companies are tightening their belts and embracing deeper cuts. Importantly, first quarter reports also revealed that almost all majors are seeing production decline as an inevitable part of survival, choosing to optimize cash flows and provide sustainable dividends.

“Companies are now highly risk-averse, with finances and operational performance under intense pressure. Nevertheless, E&Ps will need to prepare for opportunities and threats that may await them once the crisis is past. Their future success depends on how prudent they are in adapting new strategies, taking advantage of emerging opportunities and mitigating risks,” Savenkova concludes.