阿联酋认为油价在减产协议下将回归“正常”

阿拉伯联合酋长国能源部长表示，一些主要原油供应国采取的石油产量限制措施将很快使油价恢复“正常”。

阿联酋的Suhail Al Mazrouei在周一的电话会议上表示，3月和4月初，当市场因疫情打压需求而崩溃时，原油价格可能再度升至每桶40美元的想法是"一个梦"。那是在欧佩克联盟同意前所未有的减产之前。

Mazrouei在大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)主持的电话会议上表示，油价可能在一到两年内回到"正常"水准，因减产幅度接近每日1,000万桶，将市场过剩的原油挤出市场。

不过他说，油价走势在很大程度上将取决于第二轮疫情是否会迫使经济体再次陷入停滞。

我们是否会迎来第二波被疫情袭击需求下降的浪潮?””他说。“我希望不是。我希望我们不会限制旅行，我们至少会回到合理的消费水平。信不信由你，现在我们的消费又回到了2013年的水平。

Mazrouei没有具体说明他所说的“正常”价格是多少价格。不过，基准布伦特原油去年的平均价格约为每桶64美元。欧佩克和产油国在4月份就减产达成协议，以应对疫情的影响，本月又将减产延长至7月份。

以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的欧佩克旨在支撑油价的上涨。自4月底以来，布伦特原油价格已上涨逾一倍，达到每桶40美元左右，将今年以来的跌幅缩小至40%。Mazrouei说，要想继续取得成功，所有欧佩克成员国必须遵守产量配额，而其他供应商必须避免过快恢复产量。

他表示，OPEC+协议有效地建立了一个比石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称:欧佩克)更大的"永久"国家集团，将协同管理原油市场。

赵斌 翻译自 世界原油

原文如下：

UAE sees oil prices returning to ‘normal’ on OPEC+ deal

Oil-production limits adopted by a group of major crude suppliers will soon bring prices back to “normal,” according to the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates.

When markets were collapsing as the coronavirus pandemic crushed demand in March and early April, the idea that crude could rise again to $40 a barrel was “a dream,” the UAE’s Suhail Al Mazrouei said during a conference call on Monday. That was before the OPEC+ alliance agreed unprecedented cuts in output.

Prices could return to “normal” within a year or two as curbs approaching 10 million barrels a day drain excess barrels from the market, Mazrouei said during the call hosted by the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research institute.

“We have seen very good signs of demand picking up,” Mazrouei said. “We have seen numbers of driving vehicles are picking up,” he said, citing demand growth in China, India and Europe.

Still, the direction of oil prices will hinge to a large extent on whether a second round of infections forces economies into lockdowns once again, he said.

“Are we going to have a second wave or not?” he said. “I hope not. I hope we’re not going to limit travel and we will go back to at least a consumption level that is reasonable. Now we are back to the consumption level of 2013, believe it or not.

Mazrouei didn’t specify what he meant by “normal” prices. However, benchmark Brent crude averaged about $64 a barrel last year. OPEC+ producers negotiated cuts in April to counter the pandemic’s impact and this month extended the reductions through July.

Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the group aims to support a rally that’s seen Brent more than double to around $40 a barrel since late April, paring its loss this year to 40%. For that success to continue, all OPEC+ members must adhere to their production quotas, while other suppliers must refrain from resuming output too quickly, Mazrouei said.

“In previous deals we had countries cheat because there was no rule. Now there is a rule, so countries are coming and stating their commitments,” Mazrouei said. The OPEC+ agreement has effectively created a “permanent” group of nations -- one bigger than the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries -- that will coordinate to manage crude markets, he said.