IEA：石油需求恢复到疫情前需要2年以上

据世界石油6月16日伦敦报道，国际能源署(IEA)表示，随着全球逐渐摆脱疫情影响，明年全球石油需求将会反弹，但要恢复到危机前的水平可能需要几年时间。

总部位于巴黎的IEA在其对2021年的首次详细评估中表示，明年全球燃料使用量将比2019年降低2.5%，主要原因是“航空业的严峻形势”。

上述预测加剧了石油行业脆弱的前景。此前一天，出于对长期需求的担忧，BP公司冲销了数十亿美元资产。尽管如此，该报告还是给生产商带来了一些好消息。

报告称，今年上半年“以更为乐观的态势结束”，因为在为遏制疫情传播而实施的封锁期间，需求损失没有预期的那么严重。欧佩克+的减产和美国的停产应该会使市场在2021年出现赤字，从而耗尽今年迄今激增的15亿桶石油库存。

因经济活动恢复且欧佩克及欧佩克＋削减产量，周二伦敦市场油价在每桶40美元上方交易，较4月底水准翻了一番。

向多数主要经济体提供能源政策建议的IEA将其对第二季度石油日需求量的预估上调了210万桶，在一定程度上缓和了原油日需求量的大幅下降。该机构执行主任法提赫·比罗尔(Fatih Birol)说，远程工作等生活方式的改变不会触发长期的燃料消耗稳定。

尽管如此，今年全球原油消费量仍将创纪录地减少810万桶。

虽然明年原油日产量将增加570万桶，但平均每天9740万桶仍比2019年的水平低240万桶。IEA石油市场和行业主管Neil Atkinson在报告发布后的网络会议上表示，需求可能要到2023年才能恢复到每天1亿桶的水平。

至少就目前而言，现货石油市场正在趋紧。

根据该机构的预测，库存将在未来六个月迅速减少，理论上还会在2021年的每个季度减少。

IEA称，欧佩克+在上个月的最新一轮产量限制措施上取得了“良好的开端”，实现了其每天减少970万桶的承诺的89％。

然而，IEA警告称，如果欧佩克+试图随着消费反弹而恢复产量，或者油价上涨重振了美国页岩钻探商，这种情况可能会改变。

裘寅 编译自 世界石油

原文如下：

IEA expects oil demand to take 2+ years to recover

Global oil demand will rebound next year as the world emerges from the coronavirus pandemic, but recovering to pre-crisis levels may take a couple of years, the International Energy Agency said.

Fuel use around the world will remain 2.5% lower next year than in 2019, largely because of the “the dire situation of the aviation sector,” the Paris-based agency said in its first detailed assessment of 2021.

The projections add to a fragile outlook for the oil industry, coming a day after BP Plc wrote off billions in assets on concern over long-term demand. Still, the report contains some good news for producers.

The first half of this year is “ending on a more optimistic note” because demand losses during lockdowns to curb the spread of coronavirus weren’t as severe as expected, it said. Output cuts by OPEC+ and shutdowns in the U.S. should put the market into deficit in 2021, depleting the massive 1.5 billion-barrel surge in inventories seen so far this year.

Oil prices were trading above $40 a barrel in London on Tuesday, double the levels seen in late April, as economic activity resumes and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies slash supply.

The IEA -- which advises most major economies on energy policy -- bolstered its demand estimate for the second quarter by 2.1 million barrels a day, tempering some of the massive drop. Lifestyle changes such as working remotely won’t trigger a long-term leveling off in fuel use, said Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director.

Nonetheless, world crude consumption is still on course for a record contraction of 8.1 million barrels a day this year.

While it will climb by 5.7 million barrels a day next year, the average of 97.4 million a day will remain 2.4 million barrels a day below 2019 levels. Demand may not return to 100 million barrels a day until 2023, Neil Atkinson, the IEA’s head of oil markets and industry, said in a webinar after the release of the report.

For now at least, the physical oil market is tightening.

Stockpiles are on track to diminish rapidly over the next six months, and -- in theory -- decrease during each quarter of 2021, according to the agency’s forecasts.

OPEC+ made a “strong start” to its latest round of output curbs last month, delivering 89% of its pledge to cut 9.7 million barrels a day, the IEA said. Earlier this month, the alliance agreed to press on with the strategy, and members that haven’t yet implemented their share vowed to make up for it.

Next year, global demand is on track to exceed supply, with the projected recovery in oil production to be less than a third of the increase in fuel use, at 1.7 million barrels a day.

That could change however, if the OPEC+ coalition is tempted to revive output as consumption rebounds or if rising prices reinvigorate American shale drillers, the IEA cautioned.