印度石油需求预计将在9月底前反弹

据6月28日Global Energy报道，第三大石油消费国印度预计，燃料需求将比国际能源机构(IEA)和欧佩克的预测更早恢复。印度石油部长达尔曼德拉·普拉丹表示："纵看过去几周的趋势，与2019年6月相比，到6月底，我们已经恢复了85%的需求。我相信到第二季度末需求将全面恢复。"这里他指的第二季度是截至到9月份。

印度3月25日实施的全球最大规模封锁，令交通和工业燃料的需求下降了70%，炼油厂不得不减少原油加工和石油进口。国际能源署和欧佩克预计，印度的石油需求要到今年年底才能恢复正常。他表示:“解锁已经开始，许多经济活动暂停了一个半月多的时间。汽油、柴油、液化石油气和其他商业燃料的需求正在恢复到最初的水平，不过对航空燃料的需求我们仍有点担心。”

亚洲作为石油需求中心，整个地区的经济复苏并不平衡，但第二波疫情的影响正威胁着亚洲经济的良性发展。普拉丹预计，印度摆脱当前形势后，未来十年的能源需求将成倍增长，并正在寻找能源来满足日益增长的需求。他指出，到2030年，印度每年需要4.39亿吨的炼油产能，到2040年需要5.33亿吨的炼油产能，而现在只有2.5亿吨。

洪伟立 摘译自 Global Energy

原文如下：

India’s oil demand to rebound by September-end; recovery to be sooner than IEA, OPEC estimates

India, the third-biggest oil consumer, expects fuel demand to return to normal earlier than projections by the International Energy Agency and OPEC. “If you look at the trend of the past few weeks, I’m confident that by the end of second quarter, demand will be as usual,” India’s Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said at the BloombergNEF Summit, referring to the quarter ending September. “At the end of June, we have already achieved 85% of our demand compared to June 2019.”

The world’s biggest lockdown put in place on March 25 in India pummeled demand for transportation and industrial fuels by as much as 70%, forcing a reduction in crude processing and oil imports by refiners. The IEA and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expect India’s demand to not normalize until the end of this year. “Unlocking process has started and a lot of economic activities are going on for more than one-and-a-half months,” the minister said. “Petrol, diesel, LPG and other commercial fuels are coming back to original demand. We are a little bit apprehensive about aviation fuel.”

Asia, the demand center for oil, experienced an uneven recovery across the region, but a second wave of infections is threatening to put the brakes on its positive trajectory. Pradhan expects India’s energy demand to grow multifold over the next decade upon emerging from the pandemic and is looking at all energy sources to meet the expanding appetite. The country would need refining capacity of 439 million tons a year by 2030 and 533 million tons by 2040 from about 250 million tons now, he said.