美国天然气价格下跌趋势或将很快扭转

据6月29日Oil Monster消息：由于经济不确定性和工业需求疲软，上周，非贵金属价格维持横盘，而贵金属价格上涨。能源综合股价为负，原油价格下跌1.6%，天然气价格下跌逾7.5%。由于对美国石油供应的预期以及原油库存达到历史新高，本周原油价格下跌。

2020年年初天然气价格相对较低，今年夏天到目前为止，由于天然气储存水平较高，工业部门天然气消费量下降，以及LNG出口减少，天然气价格持续走低。

高于平均水平的库存增加了供应，库存比五年平均水平高出21%，比去年高出50%。根据EIA的短期能源展望，到2020年10月底，天然气储量将达到创纪录的4.1万亿立方英尺。

液化天然气出口的下降也造成了天然气价格的下行压力。今年6月，向液化天然气终端输送的天然气平均为每天40亿立方英尺。

但价格下跌现在正引发产量下降，与此同时，由于相对于煤炭等其他燃料的竞争成本优势，发电厂的天然气消耗量开始呈现上升趋势。EIA STEO还预测，干物质产量将继续稳步下降，到2021年5月达到每天842亿立方英尺的低点。

尽管目前，消费减少、出口疲软以及库存增加，正压制天然气价格。由于产量持续下降和出口回升，预计短期内将出现强劲的底部。2020年第三季度，我们预计价格将从目前的1.5美元/百万英热上涨至2.0美元/百万英热。MCX天然气将在未来几天获得100-105卢比左右的强劲支撑。目前，MCX天然气价格为117卢比/百万英热。

冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster

原文如下：

Declining Trend in Natural Gas Prices Will Reverse Shortly

Precious metal gained last week on renewed fears about rise in COVID-19 cases, gold prices increased by 1.8 percent and silver prices climbed by near a percent last week.

Base metals prices remained sideways on rising economic uncertainty and weaker industrial demand.

Copper and Aluminium closed with gains while other metals traded flat to negative last week. Copper prices rallied merely on concerns of tighter supply as the rise in COVID-19 cases among mine workers led to shutdown in production.

Energy complex traded negative with Crude oil prices down 1.6 percent and Natural gas prices down by more than 7.5 percent. Crude oil prices turned lower this week on expectation of United States oil supply and rise in crude oil stockpiles towards record high.

Natural gas prices have started the year 2020 relatively low and so far this summer, the prices has continued to trend lower because of high natural gas storage levels and declines in natural gas consumption in the industrial sector and lower exports of LNG.

The above average inventories have added to the supply, with stocks being 21 percent higher than the five-year average and 50 percent higher than last year's levels. As per EIA's short-term energy outlook, natural gas storage will reach near record 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2020.

The decline in LNG exports also contributed to the downward pressure on natural gas prices. Natural gas deliveries to LNG terminals have averaged 4.0 Bcf per day in June.

But lower prices are now triggering decline in production and at the same time due to competitive cost advantage over other fuels like coal, gas consumption by power plants have started showing rising tendencies. EIA STEO also forecasted that the dry production to continue to decline steadily, reaching a low of 84.2 Bcf per day in May 2021.

So, while at present, lower consumption and weak exports with higher inventories are depressing the natural gas prices. We expect to see a strong bottom shortly on account of continued decline in production and pick up in exports in the third quarter of 2020. We expect prices to firm up to $2.0 per MMBtu from the current prices of $1.5 per MMBtu. We expect MCX Natural gas to get strong support around Rs 100-105 levels in the coming days. Currently, MCX Natural gas prices are trading at Rs 117 per MMBtu.