受欧佩克+减产提振 油价将温和回升

据路透社6月30日报道，调查显示，2020年油价将稳定在每桶40美元左右。随着欧佩克+主导的减产以及各经济体从疫情影响中逐渐转好，第四季度和2021年的经济复苏势头将增强。

此次调查的45位分析师预计，布伦特原油在2020年的平均价格将为每桶40.41美元，高于上月类似调查中预测的每桶37.58美元。

今年以来，全球基准原油的平均价格为42.10美元/桶。周二，油价略低于42美元/桶，而西德克萨斯中质原油价格为每桶39.19美元。西德克萨斯中质原油今年的平均价格将为每桶36.10美元，高于5月份调查时预测的每桶32.78美元。

在参加5月和6月调查的37名受访者中，有26人上调了对布伦特原油2020年的预测价格。法国巴黎银行商品研究主管Harry Tchilinguirian表示，第三季度经济复苏步伐将保持温和。

但是，在欧佩克+产油国自愿限制产量、市场推动的产量下降和需求的连续复苏以及货币和财政刺激措施加强的经济活动恢复的综合影响下，第四季度的增长将加快。

根据一项新协议，欧佩克+自5月以来一直在创纪录地每日减产970万桶，以支撑受疫情打击的油价和需求。欧佩克+ 5月份的减产配额执行率为87%。

然而，分析人士警告称，全球新增新冠肺炎病例(截至6月29日已超过1015万例)可能会引发进一步的限制措施，减缓经济复苏，进而影响需求。

王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil prices set for modest recovery on OPEC+ cuts, improving demand: Reuters poll

Oil prices will consolidate at around $40 a barrel this year, with a recovery gaining steam in the fourth quarter and into 2021 on OPEC-led production cuts and as economies limp back from coronavirus lockdowns, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

The survey of 45 analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $40.41 a barrel in 2020, up from a forecast of $37.58 in a similar survey last month.

The global benchmark has averaged $42.10 so far this year. It was trading just below $42 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $39.19.

The poll estimates the price of WTI would average $36.10 a barrel this year, up from a forecast of $32.78 in the May survey.

Of the 37 contributors who participated in both the May and June polls, 26 raised their 2020 Brent forecasts.

“The pace of this recovery will remain modest in the third quarter,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas.

But it will “accelerate in Q4 under the combined effect of voluntary output restraints by OPEC+ producers, market-driven production declines and a sequential recovery in demand with the reinstatement of economic activity reinforced by monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, under a new agreement have been cutting output since May by a record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to support prices and demand hit by the pandemic.

OPEC+ compliance with the cuts in May was 87%.

However, analysts warned that a global rise in COVID-19 cases, which topped 10.15 million as of June 29, could potentially spark further restrictions and slow any economic recovery, and in turn, demand.