全球石油需求以及碳排放量可能在去年已达峰值

据烃加工网站7月1日消息 能源咨询公司DNV GL表示，全球石油需求和二氧化碳排放量可能在2019年达到峰值，因为疫情大流行将对两者产生持久影响。

这家位于挪威的咨询公司在风险管理和技术方面为石油和可再生能源公司提供咨询。该咨询公司表示，由于大流行病的影响，2050年全球能源使用量将比之前预期的低8%。

DNV GL在一份声明中表示：“旅行、通勤和工作习惯的持续改变也将减少能源使用，减少运输行业以及钢铁生产对化石燃料的需求。”

DNV GL能源转型展望主管Sverre Alvik向路透社表示：“虽然我们预计明年石油需求将恢复，但我们认为很可能永远不会达到2019年的水平。”

国际能源机构（IEA）6月16日表示，由于航空运输量下降，预计石油需求不会在2022年之前恢复到大流行前的水平。

DNV GL此前预测，石油需求将在2022年趋于平稳。

疫情过后，人们对全球长期石油需求的怀疑情绪日益增强，这给石油公司带来了重估资产的压力。

壳牌表示，将减记价值高达220亿美元的资产，此前冠状病毒危机打击了石油和天然气需求，并削弱了能源价格前景。

Alvik表示，可再生能源被视为从危机中受益，因为当能源总需求下降时，相对廉价的能源，如风能和太阳能，比化石燃料更受青睐。

DNV-GL表示，虽然全球二氧化碳排放量也可能在2019年达到峰值，但未来的预期下降幅度将不足以达到《巴黎气候协议》的目标，因此还需要采取其他措施，如碳捕获和储存（CCS）和更多地使用氢气等。

Alvik说：“疫情已经证明了行为改变确实是可能的，我们可以利用这个机会做出对气候有利的改变。”

吴恒磊 编译自 烃加工

原文如下：

Global oil demand, CO2 emissions likely peaked in 2019

Global oil demand and carbon dioxide emissions probably peaked in 2019 as the COVID-19 pandemic will have a lasting impact on both, energy consultancy DNV GL said.

The Norway-based consultancy, which advises both petroleum and renewable energy companies on risk management and technology, said global energy use would be 8% lower in 2050 than previously expected due to the impact of the pandemic.

“Lasting behavioural changes to travel, commuting and working habits will also decrease energy usage and lessen demand for fossil fuels from the transport sector as well as from iron and steel production,” DNV GL said in a statement about its research on the impact of the pandemic on oil demand and emissions.

“While we expect oil demand to recover next year, we think that it’s likely that it will never reach the levels seen in 2019,” Sverre Alvik, head of DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook, told Reuters.

The International Energy Agency said on June 16, it did not expect oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels before 2022 due to a slump in air travel.

DNV GL has previously predicted oil demand would plateau in 2022.

Growing scepticism about long-term global oil demand in a post-pandemic world is putting pressure on oil companies to revalue their assets.

Shell said it would write off assets worth up to $22 billion after the coronavirus crisis knocked oil and gas demand and weakened the outlook for energy prices.

Renewable energy is seen benefiting from the crisis, because when total energy demand falls, the cheapest sources, such as wind and solar, are preferred to fossil fuels, Alvik said.

While global CO2 emissions also likely peaked in 2019, the expected decline in future would not be steep enough to meet the Paris climate agreement goals, so other measures such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and greater use of hydrogen were needed, DNV GL said.

“COVID-19 has shown that behavioural changes are indeed possible, and we can use this opportunity to make a change which is good for (the) climate,” Alvik said.