高盛预计石油需求将到2022年恢复到疫情前水平

据能源世界网7月2日报道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)周四表示，通勤人数的增加、向私人交通的转变，以及政府通过加大基础设施支出来改善经济的努力，应有助于全球石油需求到2022年恢复到疫情之前的水平。

据美国银行在一份报告中表示，预计今年需求将下降8%，2021年反弹6%，到2022年完全恢复到疫情前的水平。

高盛表示，石油需求已经开始复苏，复苏的最初步伐令中国和印度等经济体的增长感到意外。需求仍低于正常水平，6月份的需求估计比去年同期水平低12%。

该银行预计，汽油在石油产品中的需求恢复速度最快，而受疫情影响最大的航空燃料消耗可能会受到更大的影响，因为在没有疫苗的情况下，消费者对航空旅行的信心可能会保持在较低水平。

根据上周的行业数据显示，虽然随着封锁措施的放松，燃料需求正在逐步复苏，但第二波冠状疫情可能会迅速破坏这一趋势。

路透社周二公布的一项调查估计，油价今年将稳固在每桶40美元左右，因欧佩克主导减产，且经济从封锁后缓慢复苏，第四季及2021年油价复苏势头将增强。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs sees oil demand returning to pre-coronavirus levels by 2022

Goldman Sachs said on Thursday a pick-up in commuting, a shift to private transportation and government efforts to improve economies with higher infrastructure spending should help global oil demand return to pre-coronavirus levels by 2022.

Demand is expected to fall by 8 per cent this year, before rebounding 6 per cent in 2021 and fully recovering to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, the US bank said in a note.

"Oil demand has already started to recover with the initial pace of recovery surprising to the upside in economies like China and India. Demand is still below normalised level with June demand estimated to be 12 per cent below last year levels," Goldman said.

The bank expects gasoline to stage the fastest demand recovery among oil products, while jet fuel consumption, which has been hit the most by the pandemic, could suffer more as consumer confidence in air travel is likely to stay low in the absence of a vaccine.

While fuel demand is gradually recovering as lockdown measures ease, a second coronavirus wave could quickly undermine the trend, industry data showed last week.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday estimated oil prices will consolidate at around $40 a barrel this year, with a recovery gaining steam in the fourth quarter and into 2021 on OPEC-led production cuts and as economies limp back from coronavirus lockdowns.