能源转型期间勘探仍然至关重要

据能源新闻7月3日消息称，Wood Mackenzie指出，上游勘探对于满足未来的全球能源需求至关重要。在2040年之前，全球能源需求的很大一部分将依赖于石油和天然气。

这家咨询公司在周三的一份新报告中表示，在正在进行的能源转型中，对勘探的需求正在减少。据Kallanish Energy报道，尽管目前勘探常常被视为随意的，甚至是毫无根据的，但缺乏勘探可能会导致巨大的供应缺口。

报告说：“即使在2摄氏度的情况下，未来20年全球对石油和天然气的累计需求也将至少达到1.1万亿桶石油当量。根据我们的基本情况预测，它可能多达1.4万亿桶石油当量。现有油田已开发的原油可满足约6400万桶的需求。这就造成了4600亿到760亿桶原油的供应缺口。”

分析显示，现有的发现可以填补整个供应缺口，甚至更多。但是，投资是需要的，只有成本最低、经济效益最好的资源才能吸引资本。

WoodMac预测，为了确保未来有足够的石油和天然气可用，无论能源转型的步伐如何，碳氢化合物工业“至少需要在2030年之前保持过去五年的成功率”。

曹海斌 摘译自 能源新闻

原文如下：

Exploration remains crucial during energy transition

Upstream exploration will be critical in meeting the future global energy demand, much of which is set to rely on oil and gas until well beyond 2040, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The consulting firm said in a new report on Wednesday that the need for exploration in the ongoing energy transition is diminishing. While exploration is now often seen as discretionary or even unwarranted, lack of it could lead to a huge supply gap, Kallanish Energy reports.

“Cumulative global demand for oil and gas over the next two decades will be at least 1,100 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Bboe) even in a 2°C scenario. It could be as much as 1,400 Bboe on our base case forecasts. Around 640 Bboe can be met by proven developed supply from onstream fields. This leaves a supply gap of between 460 billion to 760 Bboe,” the report said.

Existing discoveries could meet this entire supply gap, and even more, the analysis suggested. However, investment is needed and only resources with the lowest cost and best economics will attract capital.

To ensure there will be enough oil and gas available in the future, whatever the pace of the energy transition, the hydrocarbon industry “needs to maintain its success rate of the past five years until at least 2030,” WoodMac predicted.