美国页岩行业需要重新考虑其继续生存战略

据油价网休斯敦报道，美国页岩行业正在受到伤害。当全球能源行业受到疫情及其对油价和石油需求的灾难性影响的沉重打击时，西德克萨斯州的页岩成为经济崩溃的最大蛋糕。尽管国际布伦特原油基准受到了打击，但西德克萨斯中质原油价格在4月20日却暴跌至零以下，当日收盘价接近负40美元，震惊了全球，其结果是毁灭性的，破产潮、大量生产井关闭以及员工的大批解雇和休假席卷了整个二叠纪盆地，无数的德克萨斯州石油城镇从新兴城镇变成了鬼城。就在不久前，二叠纪盆地的先驱和页岩行业巨头切萨皮克能源公司宣布了破产。很难不把此解读为整个页岩行业的一个坏兆头。我们并不是没有预见到它的到来。

英国《卫报》近日报道称：“美国页岩行业先驱之一的切萨皮克能源公司的倒闭，几乎没有人感到意外。”“在经历了石油市场历史上最黑暗的一个月后，这家四面楚歌的水力压裂公司陷入了一场金融混乱，包括未能按期支付利息、日益迫近的债券到期期限和沉重的债务。”

切萨皮克能源公司不是第一家受疫情影响而倒闭的美国页岩公司，也几乎肯定不会是最后一家。美国有线电视新闻网报道，如果原油价格不改善，美国30%的页岩公司可能会破产。美国钻井网站在日前发表的一份报告中写道，总体而言，这一切听起来像是页业行业的近期深渊。“更重要的是，德勤公司的数据分析显示，自2010年以来，水力压裂开采企业已经消耗了3000亿美元，然而，30%的运营商，无论大小，在每桶35美元油价的情况下，几乎无法实现盈亏平衡。”

但几乎可以肯定的是，现在就开始为美国页岩撰写大量讣告还为时过早。虽然美国页岩行业的诸多困境没有快速解决的办法，但缓慢复苏是可能的，甚至是很有可能的。据美国钻井网站报道，尽管短期前景黯淡，但“与此同时，一些拥有可行探区的页岩参与者看到正在接近的近期深渊。这些公司缩减了各自的业务规模，为在同一动荡周期内缓慢但稳健的反弹留下了空间。”

据油价网5月份的一次报道，“美国页岩行业需要减速才能继续生存。”美国钻井网站所描述的长期战略和慎重决策对保持页岩活力至关重要。惊慌失措地决定立即重新启动被关闭生产井，这将破坏页岩行业反弹的机会。报告还指出“由于WTI期货价格目前稳守在30美元上方，甚至一度逼近40美元，正是这些公司在引领着缓慢的复苏，其中包括Parsley能源公司。”

美国二叠纪页岩盆地的复苏之路将是缓慢但踏实的，而且复苏之路肯定不会缺乏耐心。但对于那些能够坚持下去的页岩公司——关键是能够共同努力建立协调的复苏——来说未来仍有希望。然而，未来的二叠纪盆地将永远不会达到页岩革命的高度。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Needs To Rethink Its Strategy To Survive

U.S. shale is hurting. While the entire global energy industry has been hit hard by the novel coronavirus pandemic and its disastrous effect on oil prices and oil demand, West Texas shale takes the cake for the biggest economic collapse. While the international Brent crude benchmark did take a beating, the West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark stunned the world when it plunged below zero on April 20, closing out the day at nearly $40 in the hole. The results have been devastating. The Permian Basin has been swept by a tidal wave of bankruptcies, shut-in wells, and legions of fired and furloughed employees, converting untold numbers of Texan oil towns from boomtown to ghost town. Just this Sunday, Permian basin pioneer and industry titan Chesapeake Energy declared bankruptcy. It’s difficult not to read the shuttering of this shale golden child as a bad omen for the industry as a whole. Not that we didn’t see it coming.

“The collapse of Chesapeake Energy, one of the pioneers of the US shale industry, took few people by surprise,” the Guardian reported this week. “The embattled fracker slumped into bankruptcy weeks after the darkest month in oil market history, in a financial mess of missed interest payments, looming bond deadlines and crippling debts.”

Chesapeake Energy is not the first U.S. shale casualty of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it almost certainly won’t be the last. CNN reports that as much as 30 percent of all U.S. shale companies could go bankrupt if the price of crude doesn’t improve. “Broadly speaking, it all sounds like a near-term abyss for the sector, writes Rig Zone in a report this week. “What’s more data analysis by Deloitte suggests frackers have burned through $300 billion since 2010, and yet 30 percent of operators both large and small can barely break-even at $35 per barrel.”

But it’s also almost certainly too soon to start writing a wholesale obituary for United States shale (not that plenty of headlines haven’t already taken that leap). And while it’s true that there is no quick fix for the United States shale industry’s myriad woes, a slow recovery is possible, and even likely. As Rig Zone reports, while the short-term outlook is grim, “at the same time, an agile group of shale players with viable acreages saw the approaching near-term abyss. These firms scaled back their respective operations down in such a way that it left room for a slow but sure footed bounce-back within the same tumultuous cycle.”

As Oilprice reported back in May, “U.S. shale needs to slow down to survive.” The kind of long-term strategy and measured decision-making described by Rig Zone is crucial to keeping shale alive. Panicked decisions to reopen shut-in wells all at once will destroy the industry’s chances of bouncing back. “With WTI futures now firmly above $30 and having even flirted with $40, it is these very companies who are leading a slow recovery,” the report continues. “Their ranks include Parsley Energy, a company which demanded a coordinated oil production cut in Texas, and having failed to get one voluntarily cut 20 percent of its 126,000 bpd output.”

The road to recovery in the Permian will be slow, but steady, and it certainly will not reward impatience. But for those companies who are able to hang on--and, crucially, are able to work together to build a coordinated recovery--there is still hope for the future. The permian of the future, however, will never reach the heights of the shale revolution.