Rystad:安哥拉未来石油生产计划受影响

据7月8日Oilfield Technology报道，安哥拉2019年平均石油日产量为138万桶，预计2020年将达到140万桶。尽管生产强劲，但该国早就意识到，其新增产量未来将可能出现连续多年的下滑（从2021年开始下降）。因此，该国推出了新的特许权使用费和税收制度，以吸引大型石油公司的投资。

Rystad Energy估计，这些激励措施旨在帮助安哥拉恢复不断被削减的产量，并在2029年达到新增75万桶/天的峰值。新增的石油产量，再加上该国目前的产量，将使总产量非常接近2020年的水平。

然而，疫情导致的资本支出削减，可能会对该国实现未来的油气计划造成不利影响。目前，原计划中的项目被推迟，勘探计划也被搁置。在目前的市场形势下，安哥拉面临着来自巴西和圭亚那等其他市场的激烈竞争。

Rystad Energy估计，到2029年，安哥拉可能再也无法维持目前的生产水平，而不是恢复失去的产出。因此，预计新增产量峰值将会缩减至65万桶/天，并且要到2032年才能达到，到那时，现有生产项目的产量将会继续从2029年的水平下降。

安哥拉在2018年和2019年增加了5亿桶可采原油。该国和许多其他西非国家的项目都是首批被搁置的项目，因为这些离岸项目成本相对较高。那些在新的税收优惠政策下被认为有利可图的项目现在已经被搁置了。

在勘探方面，安哥拉有宏伟的计划。该国于2019年成立了国家石油、天然气和生物燃料局(ANPG)，作为行业监管机构，并计划在2019年底在纳米贝盆地和本格拉盆地出售10个近海区块。一项为期6年(2019年至2025年)的许可战略提供了55个勘探区块。

值得注意的是，ANPG决定推迟该国原定于2020年5月开始的2020年许可证发放。雪上加霜的是，油价暴跌已导致所有在安哥拉运营的石油巨头纷纷放弃或闲置钻井平台。

Rystad Energy的上游高级分析师Siva Prasad表示：“安哥拉迫切需要加快新的开发步伐，以减少不断削减的产量。必须进行更多的勘探，以取代枯竭的储量。尽管政府努力让安哥拉的业务对运营商更有利，但除非政府迅速采取行动，否则投资者可能会退出安哥拉市场。”

政府将如何回应，以及是否会以财政改革和运营激励的形式提供额外的激励，以保持投资者的兴趣，这些仍有待观察。

王佳晶 摘译自 Oilfield Technology

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: Covid-19 may forever spoil Angola’s plans to rebuild its declining oil production

Angola’s oil output averaged 1.38 million bpd last year and was forecast to reach 1.4 million bpd in 2020. Despite its robust level, the country has long realised that its existing production is on track for years of consecutive decline – deepening from 2021 – and introduced a new royalty and tax regime to attract investments from the majors.

The incentives were set to help Angola recover its declining production and add a peak of 750 000 new bpd in 2029, Rystad Energy estimates. The extra barrels, together with what remains from the country’s current production, would have driven total output very close to 2020 levels.

However, Covid-19-induced capital spending cuts may have thrown a wrench into the country’s plan for a bright oil and gas future. Projects which were in the pipeline have now been delayed and exploration plans are being shelved. And in the current market situation, Angola faces stiff competition from the other deepwater markets such as Brazil and Guyana.

Because of the new market reality, Rystad Energy now estimates that instead of rebuilding Angola’s lost output by 2029, the country will likely never manage to produce at current levels again. As a result, the estimated peak of new cumulative output will shrink to 650 000 bpd, and will only be reached in 2032, at which time output from currently-producing projects will have continued to fall from 2029 levels.

Angola added over half a billion barrels of recoverable crude oil volumes to the country’s coffers in 2018 and 2019. Projects in the country, along with many other Western African nations, were among the first to be put on hold since these were relatively high-cost offshore projects. The same projects which were deemed profitable under the new tax incentives have now been put on the backburner.

When it comes to exploration, Angola had grand plans. The National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG), was created as an industry regulator in the country in 2019 and plans were formulated to offer 10 frontier offshore acreages in the Namibe and Benguela basins at the end of 2019. A six-year (2019-2025) licensing strategy where 55 blocks were to be put on offer was created. Additional licensing in different modes was also in the works.

Instead, ANPG has decided to postpone the country’s 2020 licensing round, which was originally supposed to be launched by May 2020. Adding insult to injury, the oil price crash has led all the majors operating in Angola to ditch or leave their drilling rigs idle.

“Angola desperately needs to accelerate its new developments to reduce its declining production and must undertake more exploration to replace its depleted reserves. Despite the government’s efforts to make operations in the country more operator-friendly, investors may quit Angola unless the government acts swiftly,” said Siva Prasad, senior upstream analyst in Rystad Energy.

It remains to be seen how the government responds and whether it offers any additional motivation in the form of fiscal changes and operational incentives to keep investors interested.