第二波疫情将日减全球石油需求250万桶

据美国钻井网站2020年7月7日报道，据挪威雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）预测，在第二波疫情的影响下，今年全球的石油日需求量可能会减少250万桶。

Restad指出，在包括美国在内的几个国家里，第二波疫情已经“越来越明显”。Rystad对更广泛的第二波疫情对全球石油需求的影响进行了建模，结果显示，全球石油日需求量可能从目前基本情况估计的8900万桶跌至8650万桶。

尽管Rystad预计第二波Covid-19对全球石油需求的影响不会像第一波那样强烈，因为限制性措施仅限于特定地区和行业，但Rystad仍警告说，高峰月份的需求影响可能会在第二波疫情中达到1800万桶/天。Rystad强调，第一波Covid-19疫情造成的需求负增长最严重的月份是4月份，当月的需求增长为-2600万桶/天。

Rystad表示，如果第二波疫情影响需求成为现实，明年全球石油需求的复苏将会慢得多。根据Rystad目前的基本方案，Rystad预计全球每月石油需求量将日减400万至500万桶，并适时将新冠病毒疫情大流行对市场的影响的时间进一步拖长。

Rystad指出，无论需求出现何种程度的意外下滑，都将“导致油价暴跌”。Rystad补充称，如果世界出现第二波疫情大流行，市场的储存“头疼问题”将严重恶化。

Rystad在发给美国钻井网站的一份公司声明中称：“在最近几个月的大量原油库存被抵消之前，油价不可能大幅上涨。”

Rystad补充说，这意味着只要供应和需求在相反的轨道上运行，即供应上升和需求下降，油价就将继续存在相当大的下行风险。疫情的第二波传播将延长这些产品储存的时间，并向炼油厂发出撤退的信号。

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

The Effects of a 2nd Covid Wave on Oil

Oil demand in 2020 could lose an additional 2.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in a second Covid-19 wave scenario, according to Rystad Energy.

The company outlined that a second wave of the pandemic is already “increasingly apparent” in several countries, including the United States. Modelling the effect of an even wider second wave, Rystad revealed that demand could tumble to 86.5MMbpd from its current base case estimate of 89MMbpd.

Although Rystad outlined that it doesn’t expect the oil demand impact of a second wave to be as strong as the first outbreak as it sees restrictive measures being limited to particular regions and sectors, it still warned of a peak month demand impact of -18MMbpd in a second wave. The most severe month for negative demand impact as a result of the first wave was -26MMbpd back in April, Rystad highlighted.

If the second wave materializes, global oil demand will recover much slower in 2021, according to the company. It will land between 4MMbpd and 5MMbpd lower per month than it would under Rystad’s current base case and drag the pandemic’s market effect further in time, the company predicted.

An unexpected dip of any magnitude in demand will “send the oil price into a tailspin” Rystad noted, adding that the market’s storage “headache” will greatly worsen if there is a second wave.

“A significant oil price boost cannot occur until the massive crude stock builds of recent months are neutralized,” Rystad said in a company statement which was sent to Rigzone.

“This means that oil prices will continue to carry considerable downside risk as long as the supply and demand dynamics are moving in opposing trajectories – with supply up and demand down. A second wave of the virus would prolong the timeline these products sit in storage, and signal to refineries to pull back,” Rystad added.