据能源世界网7月7日新德里报道,石油市场的低迷开始影响到那些在维持供过于求和抑制价格方面占有相当份额的人。随着破产企业大规模增加,美国页岩油生产商开始感受到油价下跌的痛苦。
美国的几家页岩公司已经破产,可能还会有更多的公司破产。
根据Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities的一份报告,到目前为止,E&P(勘探和生产)公司的破产总数已经上升到20家,最近的受害者是美国页岩气行业的先驱之一切萨皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy),其总债务为90亿美元。
该公司预计,当前油价下跌将导致全球勘探开发资产减记3,000亿美元。
考虑到几年前勘探才刚刚开始回升,并预计现在随时会达到顶峰,这一点很重要。但新冠疫情导致的封锁和普遍的经济放缓已经扭转了该行业的局面。
在截至2020年6月26日的一周内,美国钻机数量降至278台的创纪录低点(自2020年3月以来减少了65%,同比减少了72%),尽管随着一些生产商重启生产,油价已从4月份的历史低点反弹。
根据贝克休斯的数据显示,全球钻机数量同比下降52%,至1073台(19年6月为2221台)。
根据报告显示,钻机预计将保持相对平稳,直到2021年初,因为预计运营商将等待几个月的石油价格上涨,然后才开始逐渐增加钻机数量。
在油价方面,市场预计将保持持平,不会立即缓解面临破产的产油商的压力。据brokerage估计,布伦特原油价格将稳定在40-50美元/桶之间,长期稳定在50-60美元/桶。
这不太可能给美国页岩油生产商任何喘息的机会,它们需要油价远高于每桶50美元才能继续运营。
在供应方面,无论是有意的减产(OPEC++)还是无意的减产(由于经济不景气/破产),似乎都给油价带来了上行压力,但疫情导致的全球封锁导致了巨大的需求破坏,使油价处于低位。
像ONGC这样的上游石油公司对石油的需求并没有下降,但对天然气的需求下降了大约9。 当油价保持低位时,印度的上游公司也将面临压力,但随着石油产量停滞和天然气份额上升,这些公司预计将经受住当前的风暴,并变得更强大。
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
原文如下:
Oil market downturn turns heat on US shale producers
The downturn in the oil market is beginning to impact those who had a fair share in keeping it oversupplied and prices suppressed. The US shale oil producers are beginning to feel the pain of lower oil prices with large-scale increase in bankruptcies.
A few shale companies in the US had already gone bankrupt, with the possibility of a few more on the way.
According to a report by Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities, the total number of E&P (exploration and production) bankruptcies has risen to 20 so far, with the latest victim being Chesapeake Energy, one of the pioneers of the US shale industry, with a total debt of $9 billion.
It expected that the lower prevailing oil prices would result in write-down of $300 billion of global E&P assets.
This is significant considering that exploration had just started to pick up a couple of years back and was expected to peak anytime now. But COVID-19 induced lockdown and prevailing economic slowdown have turned the tables on the sector.
The US rig count has fallen to a record low of 278 units in the week ended June 26, 2020 (decline of 65 per cent since Mar 2020 and 72 per cent YoY), even as oil prices rebounded from historic lows in April, as some producers restarted production.
As per Baker Hughes data, the worldwide rig count has declined 52 per cent YoY to 1,073 units (v/s 2,221 units in Jun'19).
According to a Platts Analytics Spotlight report, rigs are expected to stay relatively flat until early-2021 as operators are expected to wait several months for higher oil prices before starting to gradually increase rig count.
On the oil price front, the market is expected to remain flat, giving no immediately relief to oil producers from facing bankruptcies. According to the brokerage estimates, Brent would stabilize between USD40-50/bbl and settle at USD50-60/bbl in the longer run.
This is unlikely to give any respite to US Shale producers that need oil prices to be well above $50 a barrel to remain in business.
On the supply side, production cuts, both intentional (OPEC+) and unintentional (due to poor economies/bankruptcies), appear to be putting upward pressure on oil prices but global lockdowns on account of COVID-19 has led to huge demand destruction, which is keeping oil prices low.
On the domestic front, upstream oil companies such as ONGC has not seen a fall in demand for oil but gas offtake has fallen by about 9 per cent. The upstream companies in India will too face pressure when oil prices remain low, but with stagnant oil production and rising share of gas, the companies are expected to weather the current storm and emerge stronger.
标签:石油市场
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