全球LNG项目因对气候的担忧和疫情而延迟

据能源世界网7月7日伦敦报道， 据周二公布的一份报告显示，近一半的全球液化天然气出口基础设施建设项目的前景在近几个月里出现了下滑，因为人们对气候变化、公众抗议以及冠状病毒大流行造成的延误的担忧日益加剧。

全球能源监测机构的研究人员发现，在全球45个在建前开发的大型液化天然气出口项目中，至少有20个项目(资本支出约2920亿美元)目前面临融资延迟。

这标志着投资者对许多人曾认为前途光明的燃料市场的态度发生了明显转变。由于需求增长放缓、来自可再生能源技术的竞争加剧，以及该行业排放导致气候变暖的问题遭到反对，这个市场已经受到打击。

欧洲投资银行(European Investment Bank)副行长表示，该报告强调了投资液化天然气资产的不可接受的风险。

Andrew McDowell在一封电子邮件中对路透表示，投资液化天然气(LNG)终端等新的化石燃料基础设施，从经济角度看越来越不明智。

该行在去年11月宣布，将在2021年底停止为化石燃料项目提供融资。

液化天然气行业对更为乐观的前景押下了重注，因为许多分析师预测，未来10年的某个时候，需求将超过供应。

总部位于旧金山的非营利研究机构的研究人员表示，2019年，世界各地的企业承诺在新建液化天然气出口终端上投入1600亿至1700亿美元，几乎是2018年承诺的650亿美元的三倍。

各公司已经宣布了总计7580亿美元的项目建设计划，这些项目目前仍处于前期建设阶段。但研究人员告诉路透社，由于目前有20个项目处于危险之中，其中包括美国的9个项目，如果拖延无限期地持续下去，该计划的资本支出可能会减少2920亿美元，即38%。

瑞典养老金机构基金部门主管Erik Fransson表示，液化天然气基础设施面临着成为搁浅资产的风险，应该予以避免。该机构管理着120亿美元的资产。、

与此同时，权威者表示，自疫情爆发以来，液化天然气终端的开发速度已经推迟了至少18个月。

《全球能源监测》执行董事特德·纳斯（Ted Nace）对路透表示：“就进一步推进新项目而言，该行业目前确实处于关闭状态。”

液化天然气投资在许多国家都得到了政府的大力支持。美国、欧洲和其他地方的石油公司仍计划在未来10年增加液化天然气出口。

这引发了人们的担忧，即由此产生的二氧化碳和甲烷的排放，可能会加大实现2015年巴黎气候协议中设定的温度目标的难度。

尽管燃烧天然气产生的每单位能源比煤炭排放的使地球变暖的二氧化碳要少，但气候科学家警告说，该行业的快速增长以及甲烷(一种强有力的温室气体)的泄漏，威胁着限制气候变化的进展。

至于未来的项目，路透调查显示，12家公司今年初表示，计划在2020年做出最终投资决定，在北美建设新的液化天然气出口工厂。现在，这一总数已降至4个，分析师预计今年只有一个项目会继续推进。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

Global LNG projects jeopardized by climate concerns, pandemic delays: report

Prospects for nearly half of the world's projects to build infrastructure for exporting liquefied natural gas have faltered in recent months, amid rising concerns about climate change, public protests and delays due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report published Tuesday.

Out of 45 major LNG export projects in pre-construction development globally, at least 20 - representing a capital outlay of some $292 billion - are now facing delays to their financing, researchers at Global Energy Monitor found.

That marks a stark shift by investors away from what many had considered a promising fuel market, already buffeted by slower growth in demand, rising competition from renewable energy technologies and opposition over the industry's climate-warming emissions.

The vice president of the European Investment Bank said the report underlined the unacceptable risk of investing in LNG assets.

"Investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure like liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals is increasingly an economically unsound decision," Andrew McDowell told Reuters in an email.

The bank had announced in November that it would stop financing fossil fuel projects at the end of 2021.

The LNG industry has made big bets on a more positive outlook, as many analysts have predicted that demand would outstrip supply sometime in the next decade.

Companies committed $160 billion to $170 billion to new LNG export terminal construction around the world in 2019, almost triple the roughly $65 billion committed in 2018, said researchers at the San Francisco-based non-profit research group.

In total, companies had announced plans to build $758 billion of projects that are as yet in the pre-construction phase. But with 20 projects now in jeopardy, including nine in the United States, that planned capital outlay could be reduced by $292 billion, or 38 per cent, if the delays persist indefinitely, the researchers told Reuters.

"LNG infrastructure faces the risk of becoming stranded assets and should be avoided," said Erik Fransson, head of the fund department at the Swedish Pensions Agency, which has $12 billion of assets under management.

Meanwhile, the pace of LNG terminal development has been pushed back by at least 18 months since the pandemic, the authors said.

"The sector is really shut down at the moment in terms of advancing further new projects," report co-author Ted Nace, executive director of Global Energy Monitor, told Reuters.

LNG investment has had strong government support in many countries. And oil companies in the United States, Europe and elsewhere still plan to boost LNG exports over the next decade.

That has raised worries that resulting emissions of carbon dioxide and methane could make it harder to achieve the temperature goals in the 2015 Paris climate accord.

Though burning natural gas emits less planet-warming carbon dioxide than coal per unit of energy produced, climate scientists have warned that the industry's rapid growth as well as leaks of methane - a potent greenhouse gas - threaten progress in limiting climate change.

As for future projects, 12 companies had said at the start of this year that they planned to make final investment decisions in 2020 to build new LNG export plants in North America, according to a Reuters survey. That total is now down to four, and analysts only expect one project to move forward this year.