全球化肥价格将在未来六个月保持低位

据ICIS网站7月6日消息 荷兰投资银行荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）称，由于原材料成本骤降、产能不断增长以及需求平平，化肥价格预计在未来6个月内仍将保持低位。

在该行6月份发布的半年期全球化肥展望中，分析师表示，能源价格下降，将对未来几个月的行业产生较大影响。

用于生产尿素和磷酸盐的天然气和煤炭等主要原料降低了投入成本，但农民利润也受到挤压。

荷兰合作银行高级分析师马修斯?阿尔梅达表示：“我们预计，未来六个月，整个化肥的价格几乎没有上涨空间。由于投入相对便宜，利用率保持在较低水平，而且我们对大宗商品价格的预期也将维持在较低水平，预计这种低价格环境至少将持续6个月。”

未来几个月氮肥的主要问题是全球对中国尿素的需求。

对于磷酸盐，荷兰合作银行预计，各地区情况喜忧参半，如果出现第二波病毒，那么当地停产和航运限制，磷酸盐在世界某些地区的供应可能会减少。

生产成本将继续保持在较低水平。

由于季节性需求的变化，钾肥的短期前景也因地区而异。

南美的大豆价格可能有利，而马来西亚和印度尼西亚的棕榈油价格较低可能会压低钾肥需求。

王磊 摘译自 ICIS

原文如下：

Fertilizer prices to remain low over next six months – bank

Fertilizers prices are expected to remain low over the next six months owing to the plummeting cost of raw materials, growing production capacity, and mediocre demand, according to Dutch investment bank Rabobank.

In the bank's Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook, published in June, analysts said the decreasing energy prices on the back of the coronavirus pandemic would have the biggest impact on the industry in coming months.

Major feeds, such as natural gas and coal, used for the production of urea and phosphate, has lowered input costs, but farmer margins have also been squeezed.

"We expect that there is little upside for prices over the next six months across the nutrient complex. With relatively cheap inputs, utilisation remaining at low levels, and our outlook for commodity prices also staying low, we expect this low price environment will continue for at least the next six months," said Matheus Almeida, senior analyst at Rabobank.

The major question for nitrogen in the months ahead is global demand of Chinese urea.

India, a major importer of Chinese tonnes, is increasingly looking to becoming self-sufficient, resulting it being less dependent on Chinese imports.

For phosphates, Rabobank expects a mixed picture regionally, with their being a potential for less availability in some parts of the world owing to local shutdowns and shipping restrictions if there is a second wave of coronavirus.

Production costs will continue to remain low.

The short term outlook for potash also varies from region to region because of shifts in seasonal demand.

Soybean prices in South America may prove favourable, while low palm oil prices in Malaysia and Indonesia could push down potash demand.