美国液化天然气出口将降至25％

据7月8日Offshore Energy消息：受全球市场疲软影响，EIA预计美国7、8月份液化天然气出口将大幅下降。

该机构在其最新的短期能源展望中表示，美国6月LNG平均出口量为36亿立方英尺/天，预计7、8月平均出口量仅为22亿立方英尺/天。

该机构称，7月和8月的预测意味着美国液化天然气出口能力的利用率仅为25%。

随着全球天然气需求逐渐复苏，美国LNG出口将从9月开始增长，2020年12月到2021年2月平均增长为71亿立方英尺/天。

今年液化能力将继续上升，位于得克萨斯州的第三列自由港液化天然气列车5月开始商业化运营。今年夏天晚些时候，路易斯安那州的卡梅伦液化天然气第三列车和乔治亚州的三个小型液化装置将投入使用。

EIA称，这将使美国液化天然气出口能力达到基本负荷89亿立方英尺/天，峰值101亿立方英尺/天。

2020年前四个月，美国液化天然气日均出口量为77亿立方英尺，但在4月至5月之间下降17％。

暖冬和疫情措施导致全球天然气需求下降，欧洲和亚洲天然气库存偏高，减少了对液化天然气进口的需求。欧洲和亚洲历史上较低的液化天然气现货价格降低了对价格高度敏感的美国出口的经济可行性。

根据EIA数据，2020年夏季，买家取消了美国6月和7月交付的逾70批货物。另外还取消了8月40多批货物。

相比之下，美国在2020年1月出口74批货物。

EIA称，亨利·哈伯6月现货价格平均为1.63美元/百万英热单位，较5月下降12美分/百万英热单位，经通胀调整后的月度均价至少为1989年以来最低。目前，天然气需求减少的影响超过了美国天然气产量下降的影响，正导致天然气价格走低。

未来几个月，这些条件将在很大程度上持续，第三季度平均价格将维持在1.65美元/百万英热。

然而，随着天然气需求增加和产量的持续下降，特别是在第四季度空间供暖需求上升时，总体价格上行压力将在2020年晚些时候出现。2020年第四季度亨利·哈伯油田的平均现货价格将为2.46美元/百万英热，使2020年的年平均价格达到1.93美元/百万英热。

EIA补充说，由于天然气产量下降继续给价格带来上行压力，预计2021年亨利·哈伯平均价格将达到3.10美元/百万英热。

冯娟 摘译自 Offshore Energy

原文如下：

EIA: US LNG exports to dip to just 25 pct capacity

US LNG exports are expected to nosedive in July and August due to a weak global market hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the EIA.

The agency said in its newest short-term energy outlook that US LNG exports averaged 3.6 Bcf/d in June and expects that they will average 2.2 Bcf/d in July and August this year.

The July and August forecasts imply a 25 percent utilization of US LNG export capacity, it said.

Hovewher, EIA expects US LNG exports to increase beginning in September and average 7.1 Bcf/d from December 2020 to February 2021 as global natural gas demand gradually recovers.

As per liquefaction capacity, it continued to rise this year, and in May the third Freeport LNG train in Texas started commercial operations.

Later this summer, the Cameron LNG third train in Louisiana and three of Elba Island’s small-scale liquefaction units in Georgia will come online.

This will bring total US liquefaction export capacity to 8.9 Bcf/d of baseload and 10.1 Bcf/d peak, EIA said.

U.S. LNG exports averaged 7.7 Bcf/d through the first four months of 2020, but declined by 17 percent between April and May.

A mild winter and Covid-19 mitigation efforts have led to declining global natural gas demand and high natural gas inventories in Europe and Asia, reducing the need for LNG imports, EIA said.

The agency said that historically low natural gas and LNG spot prices in Europe and Asia have reduced the economic viability of US exports, which are highly price sensitive.

According to EIA, in the summer 2020, buyers cancelled more than 70 US LNG cargoes for June and July deliveries.

Additionally, they cancelled more than 40 cargoes for August deliveries.

In comparison, the US exported 74 LNG cargoes in January 2020.

EIA said Henry Hub spot prices averaged $1.63 per million British thermal units in June, down 12 cents/MMBtu from May and the lowest inflation adjusted monthly average price since at least 1989.

Currently, the effects of reduced natural gas demand are outweighing the effects of falling US natural gas production and are contributing to low natural gas prices.

EIA expects that these conditions will largely persist in the coming months, keeping the third quarter average price at $1.65/MMBtu.

However, EIA expects general upward price pressures to emerge later in 2020 as demand for natural gas increases and production continues to decline, particularly in the fourth quarter when space heating demand rises.

EIA forecasts that the Henry Hub spot price will average $2.46/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2020, bringing the 2020 annual average to $1.93/MMBtu.

EIA added that it expects Henry Hub to average $3.10/MMBtu in 2021 as falling natural gas production levels continue to exert upward price pressures.