受东北亚套利影响 美国上周原油出口大幅下降

据原油新闻2020年7月8日休斯顿报道，美国能源信息署(EIA) 8日公布的石油数据显示，由于对东北亚的套利激励效果减弱，美国上周原油出口降至去年11月份以来的最低水平。

在7月3日结束的一周里，美国原油平均日出口量仅为239万桶，为去年11月初237万桶以来的最低水平。美国上周原油日出口量比前一周大幅下降了70多万桶。

把美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）引入亚洲的套利经济学一直难以奏效。例如，根据分析公司的原油Arbflow数据，今年6月份，美国WTI MEH原油在日本的交付价格比俄罗斯ESPO原油交付价格低14美分/桶。就在今年4月份，经济形势对WTI MEH的支持超过7美元/桶。事实上，数据显示，WTI MEH原油在本周初的交割价略高于ESPO原油。

另外，达科他接入管道(DAPL)的关闭将减少美国墨西哥湾沿岸的低硫原油产量，从而导致低硫原油价值走高，比如WTI MEH。实际上，自7月6日裁决以来，WTI MEH原油价差每桶上涨了20美分，而路易斯安那轻质低硫原油价差每桶上涨了70美分。

李峻 编译自 原油新闻

原文如下：

US crude exports drop amid pressured Northeast Asia arbitrage

US weekly crude exports fell to their lowest level November last week, according to US Energy Information Administration oil data July 8, as arbitrage incentives to Northeast Asia have eroded.

The US exported just 2.39 million b/d of crude for the week ended July 3, their lowest since the 2.37 million b/d seen in early November. Exports last week were down more than 700,000 b/d from the week prior.

Arbitrage economics for WTI into Asia have been difficult to work. For example, WTI MEH delivered into Japan at a scant 14 cent/b discount to Russian ESPO in Japan over June, according to Analytics crude Arbflow data. As recently as April, economics favored WTI MEH by over $7/b. In fact, the data shows WTI MEH delivering at a small premium to ESPO at the start of this week.

Additionally, the closure of the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which has been ordered by a US Judge to be shut by Aug 5, would lower the volumes of light sweet crude available on the USGC, thus leading to higher values for sweet grades, like WTI MEH. Indeed, since the July 6 ruling, differentials for WTI MEH have risen by 20 cents/b while differentials for Light Louisiana Sweet crude have gained 70 cents/b.