东南亚面临油价风暴

据7月7日Hydrocarbon Engineering报道，在过去7个多月的时间里，世界从担心200美元/桶原油的毁灭性前景，到经历同样灾难性的现实：大宗商品暴跌至负40美元。

去年9月，无人机炸毁了沙特阿拉伯的大型石油设施。变化无常的石油市场迅速遭到抛售。但就在全世界都以为已经逃脱了灾难的时候，疫情爆发了。今年第一季度，疫情已经导致全球贸易和大多数国家经济停滞。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)称，今年世界经济将萎缩3%，并将遭受自1929年大萧条以来最严重的危机，损失高达9万亿美元。

值得注意的是，亚洲开发银行(ADB)预计，未来两年，东南亚能源过剩和能源匮乏的经济体将继续增长。其在4月初和国际货币基金组织报告同时发布了相对乐观的预测，预计疫情的影响将在第二季度达到峰值，并在2020年下半年逐步恢复正常。

随着布伦特原油价格从2019年的平均66美元/桶跌至4月底的不到20美元/桶，文莱、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和越南等地区的能源生产国今年的油气出口收入可能会减少至多70%。4月20日，美国基准原油西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)跌至- 40美元/桶的历史新低。

对于能源净进口国柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、新加坡、菲律宾和泰国来说，廉价石油和天然气带来的好处将被出口大幅放缓和经济增长放缓的冲击所抵消。

王佳晶 摘译自 Hydrocarbon Engineering

原文如下：

Southeast Asia: riding the oil price storm

In just over seven months, the world went from fearing the devastating prospects of crude oil at US$200/bbl to experiencing the equally devastating reality of the commodity’s collapse to minus US$40.

The world economy was to have gone up in flames last September when drones blew up giant oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

That did not materialise – for now at least – and the fickle oil markets quickly sold off.

The world economy will shrink by 3% this year and lose up to US$9 trillion for its worst meltdown since the Great Depression of 1929, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

ADB vs the IMF

Remarkably, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Southeast Asia’s mix of energy-surplus and energy-deficient economies to continue to grow over the next two years. Its relatively upbeat forecast, published in early April at the same time as the IMF’s report, largely assumes COVID-19’s impact will peak in the second quarter, with a gradual return to normality in the second half of 2020.

With the Brent crude price plunging from an average US$66/bbl in 2019 to under US$20/bbl in late April, the region’s energy producers Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam could have their oil and gas export earnings slashed by as much as 70% this year. The US benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), fell to a new record low of minus US$40/bbl on 20 April.

For net energy importers Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Singapore, Philippines and Thailand, the benefit of cheaper oil and gas will be offset by the shock of sharply weaker exports and lower economic growth.