世界能源需求2040年后仍将依赖石油和天然气

据今日石油网2020年7月5日报道，根据《巴黎协定》要求到2040年前把全球气温上升控制在2摄氏度以内的目标，各国政府已经开始向可再生能源转型。在这一转型过程中，人们对上游石油行业的前景越来越担忧和怀疑。一些业内专家认为，对化石燃料的需求将会减弱，从而导致一些资产陷入困境。

但全球领先的综合能源数据提供商之一的伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie/WM）的分析师认为，石油需求在2040年前将不会大幅放缓。事实上，W M负责全球勘探的副总裁安德鲁莱瑟姆和高级研究分析师亚当 威尔逊在他们的题为《在低成本、低碳世界的勘探未来》最新报告中指出，2040年以后，世界的大部分能源需求仍将依赖石油和天然气。因此，他们认为，继续勘探对于满足全球未来的能源需求至关重要，因为他们的研究表明，到2040年，只有大约一半的石油供应来自已投产油田。

莱瑟姆和威尔逊在报告中进一步指出，世界可能需要超过1000亿桶油当量的资源——石油和天然气的比例大约是50:50。他们表示，这意味着油气行业需要把过去5年的勘探成功率至少维持到2030年。

此外，分析师表示，“即使全球气温上升控制在2摄氏度的情况下，未来20年全球对石油和天然气的累计需求也将至少达到1.1万亿桶油当量。”“根据我们对基本情况的预测，这一数字很有可能高达1.4万亿桶油当量。大约6400亿桶油当量能够由来自陆上油田已探明和已开发油田满足。这将有大约4600亿至7600亿油当量的“供应缺口”。

WM的分析师指出，所有这些供应缺口——实际上还会更多——都可以从现有的发现中得到满足。但是，他们强调这些需要投资，同时指出只有成本最低和经济效益最好的资源才有优势，才会吸引资本。

然而，他们也热切地指出，许多已探明资源并不符合要求，因此，继续寻求新的石油和天然气储量将能够在这个激烈竞争中保持自己的存在。

这对南美洲国家圭亚那来说是个好兆头，埃克森美孚公司在相对较低盈亏平衡的斯塔布鲁克区块中发现了数十亿桶的石油资源。由于在斯塔布鲁克区块及其周围区块仍有几个目标，圭亚那的油气勘探潜力仍然很大。

国际能源署（IEA）说，由于全球石油产量将恢复增长，圭亚那、巴西和挪威的强劲增长至关重要

埃克森美孚公司预计，到2026年前，其在斯塔布鲁克区块的石油日产量将远远超过75万桶，而WM曾表示，这一数字在本10年结束前很可能会超过100万桶。

不够快

WM市场和转型主管普拉卡什·沙尔玛在一份单独分析报告中指出，把全球气温上升幅度控制在2摄氏度以内的努力甚至没有以同样快的速度进行，这使得WM的有关化石燃料存在的时间将比一些利益相关者所预测的时间要长得多的结论更加可信。

沙尔玛认为，这种转变没有如预期那样迅速的一个关键原因是，可再生能源还没有给投资者带来令人信服的理由。目前，可再生能源回报方面的风险太大了。

事实上，WM的分析师预测，到2040年前风能和太阳能在电力供应中所占比例仅为24%，而2019年这一比例为7%。尽管这一数字可能表明竞争力正在提高，但他热切地指出，太阳能和风能在燃料组合中所占的份额要达到50%或更高的份额仍存在实际限制。

李峻 编译自 今日石油网

原文如下：

World will still rely on oil and gas for much of its energy needs beyond 2040 – WoodMac Analysts

In keeping with the goal of the Paris Agreement which calls for a limit to the increase in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius by 2040, countries have begun the transition to renewable forms of energy. In the midst of this transition, there have been growing concerns and doubts about what would become of upstream petroleum. Some industry experts have posited that demand for fossil fuels would weaken leaving some assets stranded.

But analysts at Wood Mackenzie, one of the world’s leading providers in comprehensive energy data, do not believe that the demand for oil will slow significantly before 2040. In fact, Andrew Latham, Wood Mac’s Vice President for Global Exploration and Adam Wilson, a Senior Research Analyst, noted in their latest report, “Exploration’s future in a low-cost, low-carbon world”, that the world will still rely on oil and gas for much of its energy needs well beyond 2040. As a result of this, they posited that continued exploration will be critical in meeting this future demand since their research shows that only about half the supply needed to 2040 is guaranteed from fields already on stream.

Expounding further, Latham and Wilson noted that the world may need over 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources (boe) – split roughly 50:50 between oil and gas. They said that this means the industry needs to maintain its success rate of the past five years until at least 2030.

Further to this, the analysts said, “Cumulative global demand for oil and gas over the next two decades will be at least 1,100 billion boe even in a 2°C scenario. It could be as much as 1,400 billion boe on our base case forecasts. Around 640 billion boe can be met by proven developed supply from onstream fields. This leaves a ‘supply gap’ of some 460 billion to 760 billion boe.”

The Wood Mac Analysts noted that all of this supply gap– indeed much more – could be met from existing discoveries. They stressed however that these need investment while noting that only resources with the lowest cost and best economics are advantaged and should attract capital.

They were keen to note as well that much of the known resource, however, does not fit the bill hence the continued quest for oil and gas will be able to hold its own in this competition.

This bodes well for the South American country of Guyana where multi-billion-barrel oil resources have been found by ExxonMobil at the Stabroek Block in fields with relatively low breakevens. The exploration potential also remains strong with several targets remaining at Stabroek as well as the surrounding blocks.

Solid gains from Guyana, Brazil and Norway key as global oil output set to limp back to life – IEA

ExxonMobil anticipates that by 2026 it will be producing well over 750,000 barrels of oil per day at Stabroek and WoodMac has said this is likely to exceed the 1-million-barrel-per-day mark by the end of the decade.

NOT FAST ENOUGH

In a separate analysis that was done by Prakash Sharma, Head of Markets and Transitions at WoodMac, it was noted that the efforts to limit the increase of global temperature by below two degrees Celsius is not even happening as fast as it should, which lends more credence to the entity’s conclusion that fossil fuel will be around for much longer than some stakeholders project.

Sharma contended that one of the key reasons the transition is not happening as fast as it should is simply because renewable energy is yet to make a compelling case to investors. The risks regarding returns are just too great at the moment.

In fact, the WoodMac Analyst foresees wind and solar energy contributing a mere 24% of power supply by 2040 compared with 7% in 2019. Although the figure might suggest that competitiveness is improving, he was keen to note that there are practical limitations to reaching a fuel mix of 50% or greater share for solar and wind.