IEA：预计欧佩克+减产协议遵守率达108%

据7月10日Trend报道，如果欧佩克+继续减产，全球石油供应在2020年将减少710万桶/天，明年将出现170万桶/天的温和复苏。6月份全球石油产量大幅下降，比4月份的水平低1370万桶/天。欧佩克+减产协议的遵守率为108%。这包括沙特的额外减产，减产量超过要求100万桶/天，将欧佩克原油产量降至近30年来的最低点。

据国际能源署（IEA）称，欧佩克+的强劲表现得到了市场推动的大幅减产的补充，主要是美国。4月份美国石油总产量较3月份下降近100万桶/天，我们预计5月和6月将分别出现130万桶/天和50万桶/天的进一步逐月下降。不过，今年下半年供应可能开始增长。

美国产量触底回升，然后缓慢增长，而欧佩克+成员国将从8月起将现有减产幅度放宽约200万桶/天。

炼油利润率还将受到非常疲弱的第二季度主要产品库存过剩的挑战。预计2020年全球炼油厂日产量将减少640万桶，至7510万桶/天，2021年将增加470万桶/天。

6月份原油价格连续第二个月上涨。北海原油期货价格在38- 43美元/桶之间波动，受基本面收紧的支撑，但受当前形势和经济不确定性的限制。到7月初，油价稳守在43美元/桶上方。近期较平淡的升水将刺激原油库存的上涨。由于库存充足，成品油价格落后于原油，挤压了炼油厂利润。运费在本月继续下降。

王佳晶 摘译自 Trend

原文如下：

IEA estimates 108% compliance rate with OPEC+ agreement

If the OPEC+ cuts stay in place as agreed, global supply could fall by 7.1 mb/d in 2020 before seeing a modest recovery of 1.7 mb/d next year, Trend reports with reference to the Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“Global oil production fell sharply in June to stand 13.7 mb/d below the April level. The compliance rate with the OPEC+ supply agreement was 108 percent. This includes over-performance by Saudi Arabia which cut production by 1 mb/d more than required, reducing OPEC crude output to its lowest point in nearly three decades,” reads the IEA report.

This solid performance by the OPEC+ group has been supplemented by substantial market-driven cuts, mainly in the United States, according to the IEA.

“Total US oil production fell by nearly 1 mb/d in April versus March and we estimate that May and June will see further month- on-month falls of 1.3 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d, respectively. However, in the second half of the year supply could start to grow: we see US production bottoming out and then slowly growing and OPEC+ countries are set to ease their existing cut by around 2 mb/d from August.

“Refining margins will also be challenged by a major product stocks overhang from the very weak 2Q20. Global refinery runs are forecast to fall by 6.4 mb/d in 2020 to 75.1 mb/d and increase by 4.7 mb/d in 2021,” reads the report.

“Crude prices increased in June for the second successive month. North Sea Dated prices oscillated between $38-$43/bbl, supported by tighter fundamentals but capped by rising numbers of Covid-19 cases and economic uncertainty. By early July, prices were firmly above $43/bbl. The flatter contango seen recently will encourage crude stock draws. With ample stocks, product prices lagged crude, squeezing cracks and refinery margins. Freight rates continued to ease over the month,” said the IEA.