IEA：石油需求复苏面临挑战

据7月10日Rigzone报道，国际能源署(International Energy Agency)对全球石油需求前景表示乐观，但警告称，疫情的再次爆发可能会阻碍全球石油需求的复苏。

该机构称，二季度燃料消耗量的下降幅度略低于此前的预估，随着经济活动恢复，未来三个月需求将大幅反弹。IEA预计，随着欧佩克及其盟友坚持大幅减产，巨大的库存将会减少。

国际能源署表示:“病例数量不断增加，一些国家还在不断增长，这提醒我们，疫情尚未得到控制，对我们市场前景带来了几乎可以肯定的下行风险。”

不过，值得注意的是，国际油价较4月底触及的低点上涨了一倍多，上周五在伦敦市场交易价格接近每桶42美元，原因是燃料消费量增加，原油供应受到控制。

然而，人们仍能感受到危机的冲击仍在持续。全球石油需求今年将减少790万桶/天，降幅约为8%。尽管这仍是创纪录的需求削减，但并不像上个月预期的那样糟糕，当时该机构预计日消耗量将下降830万桶。

IEA将其对危机最严重的第二季度的需求评估上调了150万桶/天，不过这仍较2019年同期下降了17%。

据该机构指出，进入第三季度，随着经济活动的复苏，全球石油消费量将较前三个季度增加约14%，达到日均9430万桶。

需求反弹，再加上欧佩克及其盟友的严格减产，加上其他国家的减产，应会在一定程度上缓解今年上半年积压的大量库存。

6月份，全球石油供应跌至8690万桶的九年来最低水平，因欧佩克兑现了所有承诺，同时投资削减和钻井减少打击了美国和加拿大的产量。

以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的23个国家组成的欧佩克+联盟已经做出了史无前例的减产承诺，减产量几乎占全球供应量的10%，以重新平衡市场和支撑油价。国际能源署表示，由于沙特为加快复苏进程而进一步减产，减产幅度甚至超过了6月份承诺的规模。

洪伟立 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

IEA Warns Oil Demand Recovery at Risk

The International Energy Agency bolstered its outlook for global oil demand, but warned that the recovery could be derailed by the resurgence of coronavirus.

A collapse in fuel consumption during the second quarter was slightly less severe than previously estimated, and demand should rebound sharply over the next three months as economic activity resumes, the agency said in a monthly report. Bloated inventories will diminish as OPEC and its allies persevere with vast production cuts, it predicted.

Yet a flare-up of the virus, which is raging across several U.S. states and re-emerging in Asia, is “casting a shadow over the outlook,” the IEA cautioned.

“The large, and in some countries, accelerating number of Covid-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside,” the IEA said. The Paris-based agency advises major economies on energy policy.

International oil prices have more than doubled from the lows reached in late April, trading just under $42 a barrel in London on Friday, as fuel use picks up and crude supplies are reined in.

The shockwaves of the coronavirus crisis are, however, still being felt.

Global oil demand is on track to slump by 7.9 million barrels a day, or about 8%, this year as lockdowns and the economic contraction reduce the need for products like jet fuel and gasoline. While still a record loss, it’s not as bad as anticipated last month, when the agency projected a drop of 8.3 million barrels a day.

The IEA boosted its demand assessment for the second quarter, the height of the crisis, by 1.5 million barrels a day –- though that still equates to a 17% drop in the period from the same point in 2019.

Going into the third quarter, worldwide consumption should now pick up by about 14% from the previous three-month period, with the revival in economic activity, to average 94.3 million barrels a day, according to the agency.

The demand rebound, coupled with strict output cutbacks by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies alongside losses elsewhere, should temper some of the enormous inventory glut that piled up during the first half of the year.

Global oil supply dropped to a nine-year low of 86.9 million barrels a day last month as OPEC+ delivered all the curbs it promised, while investment cuts and reduced drilling hit output from the U.S. and Canada.

The 23-nation OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has pledged unprecedented output reductions amounting to almost 10% of world supplies in a bid to rebalance markets and shore up prices. The coalition cut even more than promised in June as the Saudis made additional reductions to speed up the recovery process, the IEA said.