IEA预计今年全球市场需求损失低于预期

据今日油价7月10日报道，国际能源机构（IEA）表示，今年全球石油需求将下降790万桶/日，但这一预测比上个月需求下降810万桶/日的预期略为乐观。

然而，该机构指出，最近疫情的增加以及一些国家恢复部分封锁，继续给2020年全球石油需求带来不确定性。

IEA在月度石油市场报告中称，今年全球平均石油消费量预计为9210万桶/日，而一般需求量为1亿桶/日。

对需求损失的预测降低主要是由于第二季度的需求下降没有最初预期的那么严重。

根据IEA的数据，全球石油需求在第二季度同比下降了1640万桶/日，尽管这是一场大崩盘，但仍低于预期。此外，总5月份亚洲原油进口国印度的需求强劲反弹，同比增长110万桶/日。

自今年5月以来，预计今年需求一直在减少。在6月的石油市场报告中，该机构预计2020年需求将下降810万桶/日，较4月（930万桶/日）和5月（860万桶/日暴跌）的预测有所改善。

在供应方面，IEA估计，6月份全球石油供应量下降240万桶/日，降至9年来最低水平8690万桶/日。

IEA表示：“尽管自‘黑色四月’以来，石油市场无疑取得了进展，但在一些国家，疫情地不断增加也在提醒人们，大流行尚未得到控制，我们市场前景的风险是不会下降的。”。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

IEA Sees Lower-Than-Previously Expected Demand Loss This Year

Global oil demand is set to crash by 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, but this forecast is slightly more optimistic than last month’s expectation of an 8.1-million-bpd demand drop.

The IEA, however, noted that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the reinstating of partial lockdowns in some countries continue to weigh with uncertainty on the world’s global oil demand in 2020.

This year, the world is expected to consume an average of 92.1 million bpd of oil, compared to the typical demand of 100 million bpd, the IEA said in its Monthly Oil Market report.

The lowered projection for demand loss is mainly attributed to the Q2 demand decline turning out to be less severe than initially expected.

According to the IEA, global oil demand dropped by 16.4 million bpd in Q2 year over year, which, albeit quite a crash, was less than expected.

Moreover, demand rebounded strongly in the top crude oil importers in Asia —India—in May, rising by1.1 million bpd, respectively, month over month, the Paris-based agency noted.

Since May, the IEA has been consistently reducing the forecast for this year’s demand loss. In the June Oil Market Report, the agency expected 2020 demand to drop by 8.1 million bpd, an improvement from the forecasts from April (9.3 million bpd drop) and May (8.6 million bpd slump).

In terms of supply, the agency estimates that global oil supply dropped by 2.4 million bpd in June to its lowest level in nine years – 86.9 million bpd.

“While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress since 'Black April,' the large, and in some countries, accelerating number of Covid-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside,” the IEA said.