欧佩克预计2021年原油需求将大幅增长

据7月14日Rigzone消息：欧佩克预计，明年对其原油的需求将大幅反弹，超过疫情前的水平，因为与欧佩克竞争的产油国正努力恢复产量。

根据一份月度报告显示，石油输出国组织(欧佩克)预测，到2021年其原油需求将激增25％，达到平均每天2980万桶，高于2019年的水平。

尽管上涨的部分原因是随着经济恢复增长，全球石油需求回升，但更大因素是欧佩克竞争对手的复产。报告显示，在今年下滑7.4％之后，2021年美国的石油产量增长将非常有限。

与此同时，欧佩克及其盟友正在减产，以消除因疫情造成的供过于求，并推高油价。该组织表示，今年6月承诺的减产已全部落实。

包括俄罗斯等非成员国在内的欧佩克+联盟预计将在周三的一次会议上宣布，将从下月起逐步取消一些限制措施。根据协议条款，减产幅度从目前的960万桶/天(约占全球供应量的10%)降至770万桶/天。

欧佩克在2021年对市场的首次详细评估中表示，明年全球石油需求将反弹700万桶/天，增幅为7.7%，至平均每天9772万桶。尽管如此，这仍低于去年或2018年水平，而且增长取决于酒店业和旅游业的复苏。

该组织将2020年的原油日需求量预估略微上调了10万桶，预计原油日消费量仍将达到创纪录的895万桶。

非欧佩克国家2020年的石油日产量将大幅减少326万桶，明年仅增加92万桶。对于一个在过去十年大部分时间里市场份额被美国页岩钻探公司侵蚀的组织来说，这可能代表着一段喘息的时间。

欧佩克的估计比总部位于巴黎的国际能源机构上周发布的预测更加乐观，该机构预计，明年对欧佩克原油的需求虽然将大幅回升，但仍将略低于2019年水平。

该组织目前致力于限制供应，这已经使价格从四月下旬的低点翻了一倍多，目前在伦敦达到每桶42美元左右的水平。

上个月，欧佩克进一步减产189万桶/天，至2227万桶/天，原因是沙特履行了额外减产承诺，而其他成员国也加强了对减产承诺的遵守。

冯娟 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下:

OPEC Projects 2021 Surge in Crude Demand

OPEC expects demand for its crude oil to rebound sharply next year, surpassing levels seen before the coronavirus crisis, as rival producers struggle to revive output.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecasts the need for its crude will surge by 25% in 2021 to average 29.8 million barrels a day, higher than the level required in 2019, according to a monthly report.

While the increase is partly driven by a recovery in global oil demand as economic growth resumes, an even bigger factor is the misfortune of OPEC’s competitors. After slumping 7.4% this year, the U.S. will see only limited production growth in 2021, the report showed.

In the meantime, OPEC and its allies are cutting production to clear the glut left behind by the Covid-19 crisis and prop up prices. The cartel said it implemented more than 100% of the cutbacks pledged in June.

The OPEC+ alliance, which includes non-members such as Russia, is expected to announce at a meeting on Wednesday that it will phase out some of the curbs from next month. Under the terms of its agreement, the cuts taper from 9.6 million barrels a day currently -- roughly 10% of global supply -- to 7.7 million a day in August.

World oil demand will rebound by 7 million barrels a day, or 7.7%, next year to average 97.72 million a day, OPEC said in its first detailed assessment of the market in 2021. Still, even that is below the levels seen last year or in 2018, and the growth hinges on the containment of the coronavirus and a recovery in the hospitality and travel sectors.

The organization lifted estimates for demand in 2020 very slightly, by 100,000 barrels a day, projecting that consumption remains on track for a record annual slump of 8.95 million barrels a day.

For the improvement in the group’s fortunes next year, a more important driver is the suffering of its rivals.

Non-OPEC supply is set to plunge by a massive 3.26 million barrels a day in 2020, and will rise by only 920,000 barrels a day the following year. It could represent a period of breathing space for an organization that saw its market share eroded for much of the last decade by American shale drillers.

OPEC’s estimates form a more optimistic outlook for the cartel than that published last week by the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based institution that advises consuming nations. The IEA predicted that demand for OPEC crude, while set to recover sharply, will remain slightly below 2019 levels next year.

For the time being, the organization is committed to supply restraint, which has helped prices more than double from the lows hit in late April, to current levels of about $42 a barrel in London.

Last month the cartel slashed output by a further 1.89 million barrels a day to 22.27 million barrels a day, as Saudi Arabia followed through on promises of extra cutbacks and other members stepped up their compliance with pledged reductions. A committee that assesses implementation meets later on Tuesday, ahead of a ministerial gathering Wednesday.