EIA：加拿大石油产量降至2016年来最低水平

据世界管道7月17日报道，2019年，加拿大是全球第四大石油和其他液体燃料生产国，但在2020年上半年，产量较2019年的平均550万桶/天下降了20%。由于全球原油价格低迷、加拿大和美国对成品油的需求减少，加拿大的石油和其他液体燃料产量下降。2019年占加拿大原油产量80%以上的阿尔伯塔省（Alberta）继续实施减产措施。

加拿大2019年的石油和其他液体产量与2018年持平。2018年末，加拿大西部精选原油价格处于历史低位。阿尔伯塔省政府于2019年初实施减产，缓解原油库存增加和出口管道外运能力日益受到的限制。这些限制措施原计划在2019年底取消，但在2019年10月，限制举措延长至2020年底。

美国能源信息署（EIA）估计，加拿大的石油和其他液体燃料产量从2020年3月的560万桶/天下降至4月的490万桶/天，下降了70万桶/天。这一降幅与2016年4月至5月期间的64万桶/天的降幅相似，当时麦克默里堡地区的山火肆虐迫使阿尔伯塔省的一些油砂项目暂时关闭。

在2020年7月的短期能源展望(STEO)中，EIA估计加拿大的产量在5月份又下降了56万桶/天，降至440万桶/天，为2016年中期以来的最低水平。EIA估计，由于加拿大和美国对石油产品的需求增加，加拿大6月份的石油产量略有增加。

加拿大5月份石油和其他液体燃料产量的下降幅度，大于欧佩克一些成员国石油和其他液体燃料总产量的下降幅度。加拿大的减产幅度也超过了10个自愿与欧佩克协调生产的国家。在非欧佩克产油国中，加拿大的产量降幅位居第三，仅次于俄罗斯和美国。

在7月份的STEO报告中，EIA预测，由于全球石油需求下降的持续影响，2020年剩余时间和2021年上半年，加拿大的产量将保持在低于2019年平均值的水平。EIA预测，2020年加拿大石油和其他液体燃料的平均产量为510万桶/天，到2021年为550万桶/天。

洪伟立 摘译自 世界管道

原文如下：

EIA: Canada’s oil production drops to lowest level since 2016 wildfires

Canada was the world’s fourth-largest producer of petroleum and other liquids in 2019, but in the first half of 2020, Canada’s production declined 20% from its 2019 average of 5.5 million bpd. Canada’s production of petroleum and other liquids declined as a result of low global crude oil prices, reduced demand for crude oil for refined petroleum products in Canada and the United States, and continued production curtailments imposed by the government of Alberta – the province where more than 80% of Canada’s 2019 crude oil production was located.

Canada produced about the same amount of petroleum and other liquids in 2019 as it did in 2018. In late 2018, Western Canadian Select crude oil was trading at historically low prices. The government of Alberta imposed production curtailments in early 2019 to reduce associated bitumen production and to alleviate increasing crude oil inventories and growing constraints on export pipeline takeaway capacity. These restrictions were scheduled to be lifted at the end of 2019, but in October 2019, the restrictions were extended through the end of 2020.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Canada’s production of petroleum and other liquids fell from 5.6 million bpd in March 2020 to 4.9 million bpd in April, down 700 000 bpd. This decline is similar to the 640 000 bpd decline from April to May 2016, when wildfires in the Fort McMurray area forced a temporary shutdown of some oil sands projects in Alberta.

In the July 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA estimated that Canada’s production fell by an additional 560 000 bpd to 4.4 million bpd in May, the lowest production since mid-2016. EIA estimates Canada’s production increased slightly in June, as demand for petroleum products in Canada and United States also increased.

Canada’s decline in the production of petroleum and other liquids in May was greater than declines in total petroleum and other liquids production for some countries that are members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Canada also reduced production more than most of the 10 countries that voluntarily coordinate their production with OPEC (OPEC+). Among non-OPEC producers, Canada’s production declines were the third largest after Russia and the United States.

In the July STEO, EIA forecasts that Canada’s production will remain less than its 2019 average through the remaining months of 2020 and the first half of 2021 as lingering effects of lower global petroleum demand persist. EIA forecasts that Canada’s production of petroleum and other liquids will average 5.1 million bpd in 2020 and 5.5 million bpd in 2021.