石油市场前景短期内不太乐观

据7月20日FXstreet报道，欧佩克+技术会议于本周举行，会议决定在8月份继续实施原计划的减产措施。荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)经济学家认为，当前成品油价差疲弱，表明终端用户燃料需求复苏脆弱。

这一决定将为一个石油库存已达到创纪录水平的市场增加近200万桶/天的原油供应，但由于该决定对市场来说并不意外，而且基本符合最近的公众预期，因此价格反应甚微。令人惊讶的是,欧佩克+石油出口国认为,现在增加市场供应不会阻碍近期价格的上涨，但在供应额外增加,加上需求相对脆弱复苏的情况下，很难确定不会对原油价格产生负面影响。且北半球的夏季出行季节已经过去了一半，短期内汽油消费前景不太乐观。

由于基本面和市场定量压力，平盘价和日历价差的上行空间有限。随着大量散户投资者逃离市场，近几个月来原油期货（尤其是WTI）累积的过度投机‘多头头寸’被抹去，也在意料之中。

另一方面,荷兰合作银行预计原油价格将大幅下挫，因为相对于其他资产类别而言，石油仍具有吸引力，特别是考虑到金融市场的刺激冲洗，可以估计在可预见的未来，这一状态仍将存在。预计今年年底油价将出现横盘整理走势。

王佳晶 摘译自 FXstreet

原文如下：

Oil to slow down the reaction this year – Rabobank

The OPEC+ virtual technical meeting was held this week and resulted in a decision to move forward with the planned easing of the current supply cuts in August. Economists at Rabobank continue to view the current weakness in the refined product crack spreads as indicative of a fragile end-user fuel demand recovery.

“The decision will add close to 2mb/d of crude to an industry already dealing with record oil stocks but there was little price reaction given the announcement came as no surprise to the market and was mostly in line with recent public guidance. Surprisingly though, the group of oil exporting nations concluded that adding supply to the market now would not hinder the recent price strength but it's hard to see how that extra supply coupled with a relatively fragile demand recovery is not negative for crude oil prices, at least on the margin.”

“We continue to view the current weakness in refining margins as indicative of less than stellar end-user fuel demand and with half of the summer driving season behind us in the Northern hemisphere, the near-term outlook does not offer much upside with respect to gasoline consumption.”

“We continue to see limited upside to both flat price and calendar spreads as a result of fundamental and quantitative market pressures. As such, it would not surprise us to see a washout of the out-sized speculative ‘longs’ that have built up in crude oil futures in recent months and specifically in WTI as retail investors continue to flee the space in droves.”

“On the flip side, we still expect any major dips in crude to be bought as oil still looks attractive on a relative basis to other asset classes and especially given the amount of stimulus flushing through financial markets, a dynamic we expect to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Given this view, we expect sideways to lower oil price action for the balance of this year.”