受油价提振 韩国PPI指数实现5个月来首次增长

据7月21日The Korea Herald报道，韩国央行周二表示，受全球油价回升的推动，该国6月份生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.5%，结束了长达数月的下滑。生产者价格指数是未来通胀的一个关键衡量标准。

韩国央行公布的数据显示，韩国所有商品和服务的生产者价格指数环比微升0.5%，至102.52。受冠状病毒疫情的影响，在延续了2月至4月期间的连续下降后，5月该指数一直持平。

据韩国央行称，全球油价复苏推高了工业产品价格，这对最新数据做出了贡献。

有报道称，牛津大学正在研制的疫苗在高级试验中显示出乐观结果，周二早些时候油价回升。6月包括牲畜在内的农牧产品价格指数较上月下跌1.6%，因5月政府紧急现金援助增加了对农牧产品的需求，产生了基数效应。与此同时，服务业指数在所述期间月环比上涨0.3%。

近几个月来，专家们对通货紧缩风险表示担忧，因为通货紧缩导致消费者支出大幅下降。但最新数据表明，也应谨慎对待与通胀相关的风险。Meritz Securities分析师Yoon Yeo-sam表示，增稳健的货币政策增加了流动性，增加了短期和长期利率差，现在可能会导致通货膨胀。

早些时候发布的另一份报告显示，6月份韩国消费者价格指数(CPI)同比持平，而5月份同比下降了0.3%。

据韩国央行预测，2020年韩国消费者价格指数将同比增长0.3%，将连续第二年低于2%的长期目标。

王佳晶 摘译自 The Korea Herald

原文如下：

Buoyed by oil prices, producer prices see first growth in 5 months

Buoyed by the recovery of global oil prices, South Korea’s producer price index rose 0.5 percent on-month in June, ending a monthslong slide, the nation’s central bank said Tuesday.

The producer price index for all commodities and services here inched up 0.5 percent on-month to 102.52, data released by the Bank of Korea showed. It had remained flat in May after extending a decline in the February-April period, weighed down by the coronavirus pandemic.

“The recovery of global oil prices that pushed up the prices of industrial products” contributed to the latest reading, according to the BOK.

Oil prices recovered early Tuesday on the back of reports that a coronavirus vaccine the University of Oxford is developing showed promising results in advanced trials.

The price index of farmed products -- including livestock -- shed 1.6 percent on-month in June, due to a base effect stemming from the government’s emergency cash handout in May, which increased the demand for the products. The index for the service sector, meanwhile, gained 0.3 percent on-month in the cited period. Producer prices serve as a key yardstick for future inflation.

Experts have voiced concerns of deflation risks in recent months, as the pandemic led to sharp decline in consumer spending. But the latest reading now indicates that the economy should be cautious of risks tied to inflation as well, they said.

Dovish monetary policies that have increased liquidity and difference between short- and long-term interest rates could now contribute to inflation, according to Meritz Securities analyst Yoon Yeo-sam.

The country’s consumer prices remained flat on-year in June, following a 0.3 percent on-year contraction in May, separate reports released earlier showed.

The BOK has projected the country’s consumer prices to gain 0.3 percent on-year in 2020, missing the country’s long-term target of 2 percent by more than 1 percentage point for a second consecutive year.