EIA: 2021年石油需求或将达到疫情前水平

据油价网7月20日报道，美国能源情报署(EIA)周一表示，尽管近几周能源消费量有所上升，但到2021年8月，美国对石油和液体燃料的需求预计仍将低于2019年的平均水平。

由于各州正试图遏制冠状病毒的传播，呆在家的要求和出行减少，对汽车汽油，馏分燃料油和喷气燃料的总需求在3月和4月暴跌。 自4月份的低点以来，需求已经增加，随着经济活动的回暖，需求将在今年下半年继续增长。 EIA估计，直到明年8月，总需求水平仍将落后于危机前的水平。

据美国政府数据显示，4月美国液态燃料日均消费量达到1,470万桶，为上世纪80年代初以来的月度最低水平。

EIA本月早些时候称，4月石油需求骤降，导致美国商业原油库存创下1920年以来最大月度增幅。

从数量上看，今年燃料消耗量的大幅下降有近一半是由于汽油使用量减少。今年汽油日均需求量为830万桶，较2019年减少100万桶，降幅10%。随着就业增加，明年汽油日消费量将增至910万桶，较2019年平均水准低约2%。

根据EIA 7月份的《短期能源展望》(STEO)，美国今年的液体燃料日均消耗量将达到1830万桶，比2019年减少210万桶。

据EIA称，明年美国液体燃料的日均消费量将为1,990万桶，仍低于2019年2,050万桶。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下：

EIA: Oil Demand To Hit Pre-COVID Levels In 2021

U.S. demand for petroleum and liquid fuels is expected to remain below the 2019 average from before the COVID-crisis until August 2021, despite the uptick in consumption in recent weeks, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday.

Total demand for motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel crashed in March and April due to the stay-at-home orders and reduced travel as states were trying to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Demand has increased since the lows in April, and will continue to rise in the second half of this year as economic activity picks up. Yet, total demand levels will continue to trail the pre-crisis levels until August next year, the EIA has estimated.

In April, U.S. consumption of liquid fuels reached its all-time monthly low since the early 1980s at an average of 14.7 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the administration.

The oil demand crash in April, when most of America was under stay-at-home orders, resulted in the biggest monthly inventory jump in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories in data going back to 1920, the EIA said earlier this month.

In terms of volumes, nearly half of the plunge in fuel consumption in 2020 has come from low gasoline use. This year, gasoline demand is expected to average 8.3 million bpd, down by 1.0 million bpd – or 10 percent – from 2019. Next year, with rising employment, gasoline consumption is set to increase to 9.1 million bpd, or to be some 2 percent less than its 2019 average.

All liquid fuels consumption in the United States this year is set to average 18.3 million bpd in 2020, down by 2.1 million bpd from 2019, according to EIA’s July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Next year, U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 19.9 million bpd, still below the 2019 average of 20.5 million bpd, according to the EIA.