美元走弱 油价上涨

据7月23日Oilfield Technology报道，由于美元走软推动了石油市场，油价周四上涨，但由于疫情的消息和库存增加的担忧，油价涨幅仍然有限。

Rystad Energy石油市场主管比约尔纳?通豪根(Bjornar Tonhaugen)就油价上涨发表了评论:“油价今天上午走高，市场最悲观的信号可能是上周美国炼油厂产量的下降。在进入炼油旺季之际，全球最大的原油消费国对原油的实际需求连续第二周下降，东海岸和西海岸炼油厂领跌。此外，我们相信，新冠肺炎疫情可能会导致包括我们和各机构在内的主要市场观察人士很快下调对需求增长的预测，特别是今年第四季度的需求预期。”

与此同时，忽视看跌指标是油价走强的信号，但这种影响也是由美元疲软造成的，美元疲软通常会促进工业用油的购买。然而，由汇率变动引起的价格变动不会产生持久的影响，与美元相关的收益预计将仅限于今天。

正如之前所提到的，其他指标通常会指向油价走弱，在今天的购买狂潮之后，市场可能会发生转向，当然，美元进一步贬值的情况除外。

另一方面，对于最重要的道路燃料需求的走势，市场存在很多不确定性。随着新冠肺炎病毒在美国和印度等关键市场的持续蔓延，汽油面临严重风险，而石油最近的上涨得益于汽油需求的增长。

通豪根补充道，这种价差引发了一个问题:目前的汽油需求还能维持多久?这还有待观察，这也将是一个政策问题。如果再次实行封锁，很遗憾地说，石油市场的形势将变得更加严峻。

王佳晶 摘译自 Oilfield Technology

原文如下：

Oil gains on currency effect

Oil prices rose on Thursday as a weaker dollar helped oil purchases, but gains remained limited amid Covid-19 infection news and inventory build concerns.

Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, has commented on the price rise: "Oil prices are higher this morning shrugging off discomforting news for US-China relations, a bearish US inventory report from yesterday and a fresh record new cases in India of 45 600.

Possibly the most bearish signal the market is shrugging off is the dip in US refinery throughput last week. The actual demand for crude oil from the world’s largest consumer, going into the peak of the refining season, dipped for the second week in a row led by the East and West Coast refineries.

Moreover, the trend for Covid-19 cases will likely result in downwards revisions in demand growth forecast from key market observers soon, including ourselves and the agencies, especially for 4Q20, we believe.

This may come back to haunt the bulls sooner rather than later as expectations are adjusted for the worse, which will naturally affect prices as we go forward.

In the meantime, ignoring bearish indicators is a signal of strength for the oil price, but an effect that is also caused by a weak dollar, which usually boosts purchases of oil for industrial use.

However, a price move caused by currency rate changes, does not have a lasting effect and the dollar-related gains are expected to be limited to today only.

As mentioned other indicators would normally point to a weakening of the oil price and the market may turn eyes there after today’s purchase spree, except of course if the dollar devaluates more.

In other news, there is plenty of uncertainty in the market about how the most important oil demand segment will move, that is road fuels. Gasoline, on whose demand rise oil has built its gains lately, is at serious risk as Covid-19 continues to expand in key markets such as the US and India.

The spread raises the question: How long will gasoline demand be able to hold it current levels? It remains to be seen and it will also be a matter of policy. If lockdowns come back, sorry to say, but things will look a bit grimmer for oil."