印度深水天然气产量受到LNG现货价格低迷压力

据离岸工程网站7月21日消息 伍德麦肯兹表示，印度新的深水天然气生产可能受到液化天然气现货价格低迷的压力。

到2023年，深水天然气预计将驱动印度天然气产量增长超过10亿立方英尺/天。然而，迄今为止，这一供应量中只有15%（2亿立方英尺/天）签约。由于市场需求受Covid-19的影响，且预计最低现货液化天然气价格将持续至2022年，这些深水量的完全商业化面临风险。

伍德麦肯兹首席分析师Alay Patel表示：“来自深水油田的天然气将在安得拉邦和更大的古吉拉特邦/马哈拉施特拉邦出售，在那里将直接与现货液化天然气竞争。生产商的关键时期将是2020/2021年，届时现货价格将保持低位。”

“我们估计，2022年约35%的未签约量面临被现货液化天然气替代的更高风险。”

东部的安得拉邦和特兰加纳州无法获得液化天然气，区域管网主要由印度石油天然气公司和位于卡基纳达港的信实油田供应。由于没有来自现货液化天然气的竞争，卖方只需确保天然气价格对能够吸收增量的工业或电力消费者可行。

吴恒磊 编译自 离岸工程

原文如下：

India's Deepwater Gas Output Pressured by Low Spot LNG Prices

India’s new deepwater gas production could be under pressure from low spot LNG prices, says Wood Mackenzie.

Deepwater is expected to drive India’s gas production growth, adding over 1 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd) of new supply by 2023. However, only 15% or 200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of this supply has been contracted to date. With market demand impacted by Covid-19, and low spot LNG prices expected to persist at least until 2022, the full commercialization of these deepwater volumes is at risk.

Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Alay Patel said: “Gas from the deepwater fields will be sold in Andhra Pradesh and the much larger Gujarat/Maharashtra where it will compete against spot LNG directly. The critical period for producers will be the 2020/2021 period when spot prices are set to remain low.

“We estimate that around 35% of uncontracted volumes in 2022 are at a higher risk of being replaced by spot LNG.”

The eastern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana do not have access to LNG, with the regional pipeline network supplied primarily by ONGC and Reliance’s fields at Kakinada port. With no competition from spot LNG, sellers only need to ensure that gas prices are viable for industrial or power consumers who can absorb incremental volumes.