今明两年全球风能润滑油市场需求将下滑

据《亚洲润滑油周刊》7月22日消息，全球咨询和研究公司克莱恩公司在最近的一次网络研讨会上表示，在当前的经济环境下，全球对风能润滑油的需求可能会出现减速，但在随后几年应该会出现反弹。全球风能润滑油的关键市场仍是中国，预计未来5年中国风力发电机新增装机容量将占到全球装机容量的近一半。

克莱恩公司对风能润滑油需求前景的预测，无论是乐观还是悲观的预测，都认为该市场将受到疫情导致的经济收缩的影响。克莱恩公司能源实践业务项目负责人加布里埃尔.塔莱（Gabriel Tarle）表示：“几乎所有假设场景中，2021年前全球风能润滑油消费都将下降，不过此后几年将出现V型复苏。”

克莱恩公司估计，2019年全球风能润滑油需求约为4万至5万吨，价值4亿至5亿美元，总风电装机容量达到650千兆瓦。塔莱表示：“尽管风力发电机市场只占润滑油总需求的一小部分，但由于其快速增长和高合成润滑油渗透率，它是一个重要的细分市场。”

张春晓 摘译自 《亚洲润滑油周刊》

原文如下：

Slump Expected for Wind Energy Lubes

Global lubricant demand for wind energy is likely to hit a speed bump in the current economic climate but should rebound in subsequent years, an industry consultant said in a recent webinar. A key market remains China, which is expected to account for nearly half of all new wind turbine capacity over the next five years.

Kline & Co.’s projected outlook for lubricant demand in wind energy from anticipates that the market will be hurt by the economic contraction resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic under both optimistic and pessimistic projections. “Almost all scenarios suppose a downfall, a slump in consumption for lubricants used in wind energy by 2021, followed by a sharp ‘V’ recovery for the next few years,” Gabriel Tarle, a project lead in Kline’s energy practice said during a webinar.

The company estimated global demand for lubricants in wind energy reached about 40,000 to 50,000 metric tons in 2019, valued at $400 million to $500 million, as total installed wind energy capacity topped 650 gigawatts. “Even though it’s a small fraction of total lubricants demand, wind turbines are an important niche due to their rapid growth and high synthetic penetration,” Tarle said.