石油供应增长预期使油价下跌

据7月27日Rigzone报道，油价在上周上涨后小幅下跌，原因是投资者考虑到，在美元走软的情况下，石油供应会增加，加上美国的疫情有所缓解。

纽约期货交易所期货价格在上周上涨1.7%后，已跌至每桶41美元。一些证据表明，过去几周，美国的疫情可能开始缓解。在许多疫情最严重的州，包括佛罗里达州、加利福尼亚州和德克萨斯州，报告的病例和死亡人数都有所下降，死亡人数4天来首次下降到1000人以下。

自6月初以来，原油价格一直在接近每桶40美元的窄幅区间内交易。由于许多国家努力控制疫情，原油价格从4月份的低点迅速反弹，但势头逐渐减弱。美元的下跌也在本月支撑了油价，尽管投资者正准备迎接欧佩克从8月开始放松产量限制的新供应。

新加坡Vanda Insights创始人Vandana Hari表示，油价之所以没有向下修正，主要是因为美元正在相当剧烈地持续走软，石油市场仍完全被疫情需求破坏情况和需求复苏情况的影响所牵制。

纽约商交所9月份交割的西德克萨斯中质原油价格截至伦敦时间上午7点41分下跌0.6%，至每桶41.05美元，上周五收盘上涨0.5%。欧洲期货交易所，布伦特原油9月份结算价下跌0.6%，至每桶43.08美元，上周上涨0.5%。

这一全球原油基准价格的短期走势正进一步转向溢价，这表明市场对供应过剩的担忧正在加剧。期货溢价指的是近期合约价格低于远期合约价格的市场结构。9月份交割的布伦特原油期货价格比10月份的低44美分/桶，而一周前的价格比10月份的低18美分/桶。

还有证据表明，北美的原油生产可能开始复苏。在修正了热带风暴克里斯托瓦尔（Cristobal）的影响后，截至7月17日当周，美国石油产量首次上升。而贝克休斯公司（Baker Hughes Co.）周五公布的数据显示，美国油田4个月来首次扩大钻探量。

王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Down as Investors Weigh Key Points

Oil edged lower after a weekly gain as investors weighed worsening relations between Washington and Beijing and the prospect of more supply against a weakening dollar and signs the virus is easing in the U.S.

Futures in New York fell toward $41 a barrel after rising 1.7% last week. There was some evidence, however, that the surge in the pandemic over the past few weeks in the U.S. could be starting to ease. Reported cases and fatalities fell in many of the hardest-hit states including Florida, California and Texas and the death toll dipped under 1,000 for the first time in four days.

Crude has been trading in a tight range near $40 a barrel since early June after its rapid recovery from lows in April petered out as many countries struggled to bring the virus under control. A drop in the dollar has also supported prices this month, although investors are bracing for fresh supply from the OPEC+ alliance when it relaxes its output curbs from August.

Oil has resisted a downward correction mainly due to “quite a sharp and sustained weakening in the U.S. dollar,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. Despite rising political tensions, the oil market is still “entirely consumed by figuring out the impact of the coronavirus demand destruction and demand recovery,” she said.

West Texas Intermediate for September delivery fell 0.6% to $41.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7.41 a.m. in Londo after closing up 0.5% on Friday.

Brent for September settlement declined 0.6% to $43.08 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange following an 0.5% advance last week.

The prompt timespread for the global crude benchmark is moving deeper into contango -- a market structure where near-dated contracts are cheaper than later-dated ones -- signaling concerns about over-supply are increasing. Brent futures for September delivery were 44 cents a barrel cheaper than those for October, compared with an 18 cent discount a week ago.

There is also evidence North American crude production may be starting to recover. U.S. output rose for the first time since March in the week through July 17 after correcting for the impact of Tropical Storm Cristobal, which tore through the Gulf of Mexico in June, while Baker Hughes Co. data released Friday showed the first expansion in drilling in American fields in four months.