加拿大油井钻探数量预测再次下调

据油价网7月30日报道，据加拿大石油服务协会称，今年加拿大将钻探约2800口新井。这是PSAC今年以来在持续的油价危机下进行的第三次下调。据加拿大新闻社报道，其先前的修订为3,100口井是50年以来的低点。

去年，加拿大的油气公司仍然钻了4,900口井。 尽管由于管道容量不足和全球供过于求而导致加拿大石油价格低廉。

油价无疑是企业决定今年减少油井数量的一个因素，但这并不是唯一的原因。据加拿大石油服务协会临时首席执行官伊丽莎白·阿昆（Elizabeth Aquin）称，整体经济的缓慢复苏以及石油和天然气钻探公司的高债务水平也在发挥作用。

有趣的是，就在一天前，IHS Markit预测，尽管新冠疫情对能源行业产生了不利影响，但加拿大的油砂产量仍有望增长。

IHS Markit的两位资深分析师指出，新冠疫情的影响已经改变了较低投资期的驱动力，不一定改变了长期预期的方向。他们表示，预计2030年油砂日产量将达到380万桶，仅比危机前的预期少10万桶。

对本行业而言更积极的迹象是，本月早些时候有报道称加拿大的油气生产商正在恢复缩减的产量。据彭博社报道，随着石油价格从四月份的多年低点中恢复，关闭的100万桶/日的产量中约有五分之一已恢复。

油砂巨头Cenovus的首席执行官表示，没有人会对我们的生产满负荷恢复感到惊讶。在我们目前的水平上，我们的现金流是显非常可观。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下:

Canadian Oil Drilling Forecast Gets Slashed Again

Some 2,800 new wells will be drilled in Canada this year, according to the Petroleum Services Association of the country. This is the third downward revision the PSAC has made so far this year amid the continuing oil price crisis. Its previous revision was to a 50-year low of 3,100 wells, the Canadian Press reports.

Last year, Canadian oil and gas companies drilled 4,900 wells. That was despite the low prices for Canadian oil resulting from a shortage of pipeline capacity and the global glut.

Oil prices are certainly a factor in the businesses’ decision to drill fewer wells this year, but it is not the only one. A slow recovery of the wider economy and high debt levels among oil and gas drillers are also at play, according to the interim chief executive of the Petroleum Services Association of Canada, Elizabeth Aquin.

Interestingly, just a day earlier, IHS Markit forecast that oil sands production in Canada was set to grow despite the adverse effects of the pandemic on the energy industry.

“The impact of COVID19 has changed the driver of the lower investment period, not necessarily the direction of long-term expectations,” two senior IHS Markit analysts noted, saying they expected oil sands output to reach 3.8 million bpd in 2030, just 100,000 bpd less than pre-crisis projections.

In more positive signs for the industry, earlier this month, reports emerged that Canadian oil and gas producers were bringing back curtailed output. According to Bloomberg, about a fifth of the 1 million bpd in shut-in production was being brought back as oil prices recovered from the multi-year lows seen in April.

“Nobody should be surprised to see our production moving back to full production capacity. We are significantly cash-flow positive at the levels we’re at now,” said the chief executive of oil sands major Cenovus.