在经济极度不稳定之际 欧佩克+计划增产

据彭博社8月1日报道，从欧洲平静的天空到美国大城市稀疏的交通，全球石油需求的复苏在冠状病毒的死灰复燃中步履蹒跚。这对欧佩克及其合作伙伴构成了一个特别微妙的挑战，它们计划在下周恢复一些在疫情最严重时停止的部分原油产量。

尽管在成功提振油价后，欧佩克迫切希望增加石油销售，但全球经济的反复意味着，额外供应正处于一个脆弱的时刻，并可能导致市场再次走向低迷。

市场情报公司Kpler SAS的研究主管亚历克斯?布斯(Alex Booth)表示:“就增产范围而言，我们处于相当微妙的平衡状态。你必须对需求复苏持相当乐观的看法，才能证明需求大幅增长是合理的。”

以俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯为首的欧佩克+联盟，在春季需求骤减时，创纪录地减产970万桶日产量，约占全球供应量的10%。该组织打算在下个月重新开始生产约150万桶/天的石油。

从理论上讲，由23个国家组成的联盟稍微打开一点“水龙头”是合理的。国际原油价格从4月底的低点上涨了近两倍，布伦特原油期货价格升至每桶43美元。这为依赖能源销售为政府支出融资的国家以及埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp .)和英国石油(BP Plc.)等公司提供了一条救生索。

总部位于奥斯陆的咨询公司Rystad Energy 的数据显示，全球石油市场在经历了数月的过剩之后，已转向供应不足，7月份的日需求量比供给量高出约200万桶。这在一定程度上减少了今年上半年积压的库存。

总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(IEA）表示，即便欧佩克+恢复生产，本季度的库存降幅可能会是第二季度的两倍，平均为440万桶/天。

然而，有迹象表明，市场趋紧的势头正开始减弱。国际能源署总干事法提赫?比罗尔(Fatih Birol)在接受采访时表示:“市场正在逐渐复苏，但存在两大不确定因素。一个是全球经济复苏的情况，以及一些关键领域的情况。第二个问题是我们是否会看到第二波冠状病毒疫情。”

今年第二季度，美国经济遭遇了至少自上世纪40年代以来最严重的衰退，死亡人数已达到创纪录的15万人。尽管夏季高峰即将来临，汽油需求仍远低于平均水平，而TomTom Traffic Index的数据显示，洛杉矶和迈阿密等城市的道路交通量还不到大流行前水平的一半。

在亚洲，成功抑制了第一波感染的国家，正在努力控制新的爆发。所有这些都使得石油库存膨胀。世界上最大的独立石油储存公司，鹿特丹的Royal Vopak NV表示，它的可用空间几乎耗尽。Rystad预计，下个月的日产量将比需求多70万桶，9月份将比需求多200万桶。

值得注意的是，价格也随之萎靡不振。自4月底以来上涨逾一倍的布伦特原油期货价格已失去上涨动力，这一国际基准原油价格停留在每桶40美元附近。咨询公司石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen表示:“欧佩克增加产量的尝试可能适得其反，因为就石油需求而言，我们还远未脱离困境。未来3到4个月，供需平衡似乎将朝着微小供应过剩的方向发展。”

咨询公司JBC Energy GmbH在一份报告中称，今年7月，欧佩克+日产原油2330万桶，约占全球需求的四分之一。

王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Opec+ is set to pump more oil just as recovery teeters

From quiet skies over Europe to sparse traffic in America’s biggest cities, a recovery in global oil demand is faltering amid the resurgence in coronavirus.

That poses a particularly delicate challenge for Opec and its partners, who next week plan to resume some of the crude output halted during the depths of the pandemic.

While the alliance is eager to ramp up oil sales after successfully reviving prices, the relapse in the world economy means that extra supply is arriving at a fragile moment, and could send the market lower again.

“We’re in quite a finely balanced place in terms of the scope to increase production,” said Alex Booth, head of research at market intelligence firm Kpler SAS. “You have to have quite a bullish view on the demand recovery to be able to justify any significant increase.”

The Opec+ alliance – led by Russia and Saudi Arabia – took a record 9.7mn barrels of daily output, or roughly 10% of global supply, offline when demand plunged over the spring. They intend to restart about 1.5mn barrels next month.

In theory, it’s reasonable for the 23-nation coalition to open the taps a little.

Their stringent cuts have almost tripled international crude prices from the lows struck in late April, lifting Brent crude futures to $43 a barrel. That’s thrown a lifeline to countries reliant on energy sales to finance government spending, and companies like Exxon Mobil Corp and BP Plc.

Global oil markets have swung into deficit after months of surplus, with demand exceeding supply in July by about 2mn barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy A/S, a consultant based in Oslo. That’s paring some of the inventory glut amassed during the first half of the year.

The inventory decline for the quarter as a whole could be twice as steep, averaging 4.4mn barrels a day, even if Opec+ revives production, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris.

Yet there are signs the tightening of the market is beginning to slacken.

“The markets are gradually recovering, but there are two major uncertainties,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said in an interview. “One is the shape of the economic recovery globally, and in some of the key areas. And the second one is whether or not we are going to see a second wave of coronavirus.”

The death toll has reached a record 150,000 in the US, where the economy suffered its sharpest downturn since at least the 1940s in the second quarter.

Gasoline demand remains well-below average even as the summer peak approaches, while data from TomTom Traffic Index show that road traffic in cities such as Los Angeles and Miami is less than half pre-pandemic levels.

In Asia, countries that successfully suppressed the first wave of infections, such as Hong Kong, are struggling to contain new outbreaks. All of which is keeping inventories bloated. The world’s largest independent oil storage company, Rotterdam-based Royal Vopak NV, says that it’s almost run out of available space. Rystad predicts supply will exceed demand by 700,000 barrels a day next month, and by 2mn a day in September.

Prices are wilting in response. The rally that more than doubled Brent futures since late April has lost momentum, leaving the international benchmark stuck near $40 a barrel. A discount on early deliveries, which Opec sought to eliminate, has only deepened.

“Opec’s experiment to increase production could backfire as we are still nowhere near out of the woods yet in terms of oil demand,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, the consultant’s head of oil markets. “The balances look to be heading towards a mini supply glut for the next three to four months.”

In July, the organisation pumped 23.3mn barrels of crude a day, equivalent to about a quarter of global demand, consultants JBC Energy GmbH in Vienna said in a report.