三菱金融预测全球需求2023年三季度前不太可能反弹

据TABNI网站2020年8月2日迪拜报道，一份报告称，全球石油需求要到2023年第三季度才能恢复到新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的水平，而每天250万桶的预测被视为需求破坏的永久性水平。

日本银行控股和金融服务公司三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）日前在其最新一期的石油市场每周报告中表示，尽管在夏季需求有一个假定的回升势头，但由于特别是航空需求恢复损失的速度很慢，我们仍预测全球液体需求只会在今年年底前扩大到日均9700万桶。

MUFG说：“因此，如果不考虑新冠病毒疫情反复发作的风险，我们预测今年全球石油年需求量将减少800万桶/天，减少到9200万桶/天。我们认为，全球石油需求仅仅将在明年第三季度打破新冠病毒疫情爆发前每天1亿桶的运行率，明年全球石油平均日需求为9860万桶。

MUFG说：“这比我们之前的估计低了250万桶/天，考虑到Covid-19的影响将是长期的，我们把这个数字作为需求破坏的永久水平。由于世界逐步走出封锁，经济增长放缓和Covid-19行动限制的持续影响，这些因素仍将拖累全球石油需求的复苏，特别是航空燃油。”

MUFG补充说：“因此，我们继续预测，这种破坏将持续到2021年，而我们的预期与国际能源署在日前其最新的月度评估报告中作出的预期类似，预计全球石油需求将只在2022年前回到疫情爆发之前的水平。中期而言，我们预计消费者、企业和工业行为将出现结构性转变，这将大大抵消乐观的人口统计趋势和新兴市场扩张的影响，从而放缓石油需求增长。”

李峻 编译自 TABNI.com

原文如下：

Oil demand ‘unlikely to rebound until Q3 2023’

Global oil demand will not return back to pre-virus levels until the third quarter (Q3) of 2023, and a forecast of 2.5 million barrels per day (m b/d) quantum is seen as a permanent level of demand destruction, a report said.

Despite an assumed pick-up in momentum over the summer, we forecast that global liquids demand will only expand to an average 97m b/d by year-end, as aviation demand in particular is slow to convalesce losses, said Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a Japanese bank holding and financial services company, in its latest Oil Market Weekly report.

“As a result – absent the risk of iterative virus waves – we model 2020 annualised global oil demand ~8mb/d lower at 92m b/d. We believe global oil demand will breach the pre-virus run-rate of 100m b/d only in Q3 2021, averaging 98.6m b/d in 2021,” the report said.

“This is 2.5m b/d lower than our previous assessment, and we adopt this quantum as the permanent level of demand destruction, given we view the fall-out from Covid-19 will be long-lasting. As the world emerges from lockdowns, a combination of weaker economic growth and lingering impacts of Covid-19 mobility restrictions will still be a drag on the recovery in oil demand, especially jet fuel.

“Thus, we continue to forecast the damage persisting well into 2021, and our expectations were similarly echoed by the IEA in its latest monthly assessment this week, projecting that global oil demand will return to pre-Covid-19 levels only by 2022. In the medium-term, we expect structural shifts to consumer, corporate and industrial behaviour, to more than offset promising demographic trends and EM expansion, to slow oil demand growth,” it added.