沙特可能会被迫再次降低油价

据油价网8月2日报道，在原油价格连续三个月上涨后，外界普遍预期世界最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯将首次下调其官方售价(OSPs)，这是自OPEC+集团开始创纪录的减产以支撑市场和价格以应对需求锐减以来的首次下调。

亚洲的炼油商和贸易商普遍预计，沙特石油巨头阿美(Aramco)将下调9月份销往亚洲的原油价格，由于石油需求复苏步履蹒跚，压低了炼油利润率，削弱了中东石油基准，海湾地区的石油生产商据此为亚洲定价。

据路透社(Reuters)对亚洲五家炼油厂的调查，业内预计沙特将把9月份出口到亚洲的旗舰阿拉伯轻质原油的价格平均每桶下调0.61美元。

彭博(Bloomberg)对8家亚洲交易商和炼油商的调查也显示出类似的预期，预测每桶下调0.48美元。

这意味着9月份销往亚洲的沙特阿拉伯轻质原油的装载价格可能较迪拜/阿曼基准价格高出每桶0.72美元，低于8月装载的每桶1.20美元的溢价。沙特石油公司7月初在三个月内第三次上调原油价格时宣布的8月装载价。

虽然沙特在过去三个月的价格上涨标志着石油需求复苏，中东迪拜/阿曼基准随着欧佩克削减后供应的收紧而加强，但沙特价格下跌的预期是一个迹象，表明需求复苏复苏步履蹒跚，拖累中东基准和炼油利润率下降。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia May Be Forced To Cut Oil Prices Once Again

After three consecutive months of raising its crude oil prices, the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is widely expected to make the first cut to its official selling prices (OSPs) since the OPEC+ group started their record production cuts to prop up the market and prices amid crashing demand. Oil refiners and traders in Asia largely expect the Saudi oil giant Aramco to cut the price of its crude oil going to Asia in September as faltering oil demand recovery is depressing refining margins and weakening the Middle East oil benchmarks against which the producers in the Gulf set their prices for Asia.

According to a Reuters survey of five Asian refiners, the industry expects Saudi Arabia to cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude grade to Asia for September by an average of US$0.61 per barrel.

A Bloomberg survey of eight Asian traders and refiners showed similar expectations, with a median forecast of a cut of US$0.48 a barrel.

This would mean that Saudi crude Arab Light loading for Asia in September could be priced at a premium of US$0.72 a barrel over the Dubai/Oman benchmark, down from the premium of US$1.20 per barrel for the August loadings, which Saudi Aramco announced in early July in the third hike of its crude prices in three months.

While the Saudi price hikes in the past three months signaled oil demand recovering and Middle East Dubai/Oman benchmarks strengthening as supply grew tighter after the OPEC+ cuts, the expectations of lower Saudi prices going forward is a sign that demand recovery is stumbling and dragging the Middle East benchmarks and refining margins down.