亚洲及欧洲制造业平稳复苏支撑油价

据8月4日Arab News报道，周一，由于全球新冠肺炎病例不断增加，以及欧佩克及其盟友削减减产规模的预期引发供应过剩担忧，而欧洲和亚洲的制造业利好数据抵消了这些负面影响，石油价格趋稳。

布伦特原油价格上涨5美分，涨幅为0.1%，至每桶43.57美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油价格上涨6美分，涨幅为0.1%，至每桶40.33美元。过去一个月，布伦特原油价格一直在每桶41美元至近45美元之间波动。

荷兰国际集团(ING)大宗商品策略主管沃伦?帕特森(Warren Patterson)表示:“石油继续在令人难以置信的区间波动内进行交易。投机者似乎对需求复苏越来越担忧，今年下半年，需求复苏的过程比市场预期的要缓慢得多。”

冠状病毒病例在美国继续攀升，在全球范围内已达到近1800万，有更多的国家实施新的限制措施或扩大现有的限制措施，以努力控制疫情。尽管在病毒死灰复燃的情况下，燃料需求复苏缓慢，但投资者仍担心供应过剩，因为欧佩克及其盟友准备从8月开始放宽石油供应削减规模。

法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)商品研究主管Harry Tchilinguirian表示:"市场似乎开始担心，欧佩克增产将与石油需求不均衡的复苏同时出现。"

自5月以来，欧佩克+每日削减石油970万桶。从本月开始，原油日减产量将正式降至770万桶，直至12月。

一位消息人士周一表示，8月1日和2日，俄罗斯凝析油日产量从7月的937万桶增加至980万桶。

油价在交易日早些时候有所下跌，但在一项调查显示上月欧元区制造业活动自2019年初以来首次出现扩张后，油价得到了一些支撑。亚洲积极的制造业数据也帮助支撑了油价。

周五路透社的一项调查显示，由于冠状病毒引发的限制措施的逐步放松会提振需求，今年油价将缓慢攀升，不过第二波新冠病毒疫情可能会减缓复苏步伐。

王佳晶 摘译自 Arab News

原文如下：

Oil steady as virus fears counter positive factory data

Oil prices steadied on Monday as rising COVID-19 cases around the globe and oversupply worries fueled by the prospect of OPEC and its allies winding back output cuts were offset by positive industry data in Europe and Asia.

Brent crude rose 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $43.57 a barrel by while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 6 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $40.33.

Over the past month, Brent has been trading in a range between $41 and almost $45.

“Oil continues to trade in an incredibly rangebound manner,” said Warren Patterson, ING’s head of commodities strategy.

“Speculators appear to be getting more nervous about the demand recovery, with the path much more gradual than market expectations coming into the second half of the year.”

Coronavirus cases have continued to climb in the United States and have reached almost 18 million globally, with more countries imposing new restrictions or extending existing curbs in an effort to control the pandemic. While fuel demand recovers slowly in the face of the resurgence of the virus, investors are also worried about oversupply as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, prepare to ease oil supply cuts from August.

“Concerns appear to be developing that a rise in OPEC+ production will coincide with uneven recovery in oil demand due to localized setbacks following secondary waves of COVID outbreaks,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas.

OPEC+ members have been cutting output since May by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd). From this month cuts will officially taper to 7.7 million bpd until December.

Russian oil and gas condensate output increased to 9.8 million bpd over Aug. 1-2, from 9.37 million bpd in July, a source familiar with data said on Monday.

Oil prices fell earlier in the session but found some support after a survey showed manufacturing activity across the eurozone expanded last month for the first time since early 2019.

Positive manufacturing data in Asia also helped to support oil prices.

A Reuters poll on Friday indicated that oil is set for a slow crawl upwards this year as the gradual easing of coronavirus-led restrictions buoys demand, though a second COVID-19 wave could slow the pace of a recovery.