2020年全球天然气和LNG需求将缩减约4%

据路透社8月7日报道，行业游说组织国际天然气联盟等机构的一项研究显示，2020年受新冠疫情影响，全球天然气和液化天然气(LNG)需求将从2019年的纪录高位缩减约4%。

研究报告称，尽管如此，但由于供应充足且价格持续低迷，随着世界经济恢复势头，未来两年需求仍能恢复到Covid-19爆发前的水平。

报告预测，在2019年飙升13%至创纪录的4820亿立方米后， 2020年全球LNG需求将下降约4.2％。

IGU与意大利天然气公司Snam SpA和研究公司BloombergNEF合作撰写了这份报告。

今年初，由于政府为阻止病毒蔓延而采取的封锁措施，导致全球天然气需求暴跌，欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格跌至纪录低点，美国价格跌至24年低点。

分析师表示，目前价格仍处于低位，且预计未来数年内将保持在相对较低水平，这应该会鼓励公用事业公司在未来几年内燃烧更多的天然气。

国际能源署(IEA)在其《2019年世界能源展望》的 “既定政策设想 ”中表示，到2040年，天然气使用量将平均增长1.4%。

不过，IEA也在其“可持续发展设想”中表示，如果各国政府采取更强有力的气候政策，全球天然气使用量将从本世纪20年代末开始下降。

IGU表示，通过采用氢气等清洁气体技术，可以减少约三分之一的能源相关排放。

Snam首席执行官Marco Alvera表示：“我们的目标是降低绿色氢气的成本，直到它能与化石燃料竞争。”他指出：“扩大氢气生产规模的明智方法是将其与现有天然气管道中的天然气混合”。

沈韩晔 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

Pandemic to cut global gas and LNG demand by about 4 per cent in 2020: industry group

The coronavirus pandemic will cut global natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand by about 4 per cent in 2020 from record highs in 2019, according to a study by the International Gas Union, an industry lobby group, and others.

Still, demand can recover to pre-Covid-19 levels in the next two years as the world economy regains momentum, the study said, citing abundant supply and continued low prices.

The report projected global LNG demand will fall about 4.2 per cent in 2020 after soaring 13 per cent in 2019 to a record 482 billion cubic meters.

IGU partnered with Italian gas company Snam SpA and BloombergNEF, a research company, to write the report.

The collapse in global gas demand due to government lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus caused prices to fall to record lows in Europe and Asia earlier this year. US prices dropped to a 24-year low.

Analysts said prices are still low and are expected to remain relatively low for years, which should encourage utilities to burn more gas in coming years.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in the "Stated Policies Scenario" of its 2019 World Energy Outlook that gas use will grow by an average of 1.4 per cent through 2040.

IEA, however, also said in its "Sustainable Development Scenario" that global gas use would decline from the end of the 2020s onward if governments embrace stronger climate policies.

IGU said about a third of energy-related emissions could be abated by adoption of clean gas technologies, like hydrogen.

"The goal is to bring down the cost of green hydrogen until it becomes competitive with fossil fuels," Snam CEO Marco Alvera said, noting "A smart way to scale up hydrogen production is blending it with natural gas in existing gas pipelines."