疫情致全球商用航空燃油消耗量下降69%

据全球能源新闻网8月8日报道，遏制2019年新型冠状病毒的努力极大地改变了全球商业客运运量。这些航班在1月和2月平均每天超过7万架次，4月降至平均每天不到2.5万架次，然后在5月又开始增加。商用航空燃油消耗也呈现类似的趋势，从1月和2月的日均430万桶降至4月的日均100万桶。

为了估计全球航空燃料消耗的变化，美国能源信息署(EIA)最近开始使用航空公司Cirium提供的数据，这些数据详细列出了自2019年1月以来的每一次定期商业客运航班，包括飞行的飞机类型及其航线。EIA利用每个航班的出发地和目的地的数据，估算了每个航班消耗的航空燃料量，并将这些航班相加，从而估算出全球商业客运航班消耗的航空燃料总量。

EIA估计，7月份前两周商业客运航班的航空燃油日均消耗量为160万桶，较一年前下降69%。全球航空燃料需求的最大降幅发生在3月和4月，正好与最初加紧努力减缓疫情的扩散相吻合。在全球范围内，2月至3月间，商用客运航班的航空燃油日消耗量减少70万桶，3月至4月间减少了240万桶，尽管5月日需求仅增加了10万桶，6月增加了30万桶。

尽管市场最初下跌和低点的时间各不相同(主要反映了疫情传播的时间)，但几乎所有主要市场的航空燃料需求都从4月和5月的低点有所上升。然而，复苏的程度并不相同。虽然今年6月中国商用航班的航空燃油平均消费量较去年同期下降43%，但世界其他地区的降幅更大:

?前苏联地区70%

?美国75%

?中东和北非77%

?亚太其它地区80%

?非洲其他地区85%

?欧洲87%

?美洲其他地区88%

在一国境内发生的航空旅行所占份额是飞机燃料需求下降的一个关键驱动因素。 由于对国内旅行的限制较少，通常所涉距离较短，以及国内航空旅行用于商业或非娱乐目的的份额较大，主要用于国内航空旅行的内地机场通常比其典型的沿海、更面向国际的同行恢复得更快。这种复苏的证据是国内航班的航空燃油消费相对回升。尽管在2019年6月占全球商业客运航班总燃油消耗的30%，但截至2020年6月，国内航班的份额已增长至56%。这一趋势在中国尤其明显。同期，中国国内航班消耗的航空燃油占中国航空总油耗的比例从53%升至83%。

郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网

原文如下：

COVID-19 OUTBREAK CAUSED COMMERCIAL JET FUEL CONSUMPTION TO FALL BY 69%

Efforts to contain the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have dramatically changed global commercial passenger flight volumes. These flights averaged a little more than 70,000 flights per day in January and February, fell to an average of less than 25,000 flights per day in April, and then started to increase again in May. Commercial jet fuel consumption showed a similar pattern, falling from an average of 4.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in January and February to 1.0 million b/d in April.

To estimate global changes in jet fuel consumption, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently began using data from aviation company Cirium that detail each scheduled commercial passenger flight, including the type of aircraft flown and its route, since January 2019. Using data on each flight’s origin and destination, EIA estimated the volume of jet fuel consumed by each flight and summed these flights to estimate the total volume of jet fuel consumed globally by commercial passenger flights.

EIA estimates that consumption of jet fuel by commercial passenger flights averaged 1.6 million b/d during the first two weeks of July, 69% less than the level one year ago. The largest decline in global demand for jet fuel occurred during March and April, coinciding with the initial, intensified efforts to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Globally, consumption of jet fuel by commercial passenger flights declined by 0.7 million b/d between February and March and by 2.4 million b/d between March and April, although demand grew by only 0.1 million b/d in May and 0.3 million b/d in June.

Although the timing of a market’s initial decline and low point varies (largely reflecting the timing of the spread of COVID-19), jet fuel demand in nearly every major market has increased from the lows of April and May. The extent of this recovery has not been equal, however. Although average June 2020 consumption of jet fuel by commercial flights in China was down 43% relative to the same time last year, consumption was down significantly more in other parts of the world:

? 70% in the countries of the former Soviet Union

? 75% in the United States

? 77% in the Middle East and North Africa

? 80% in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region

? 85% in the rest of Africa

? 87% in Europe

? 88% in the rest of the Americas

The share of air travel that occurs within a country’s borders is one key driver of declines in demand for jet fuel. Because of the less severe restrictions on domestic travel, the shorter distances typically involved, and the larger share of domestic air travel for business or non-recreational purposes, interior airports that cater primarily to domestic air travel have generally recovered faster than their typically coastal, more internationally oriented peers. Evidence of this recovery is in the relative resurgence of jet fuel consumption by domestic flights. Despite constituting 30% of all jet fuel consumed globally by commercial passenger flights in June 2019, as of June 2020, the domestic flight share had grown to 56%. This trend has been particularly true in China, where the share of jet fuel consumed by domestic flights rose from 53% to 83% during the same period.