IHS Markit：明年油价可能突破50美元大关

据油价网2020年8月7日伦敦报道，根据知名商业咨询服务商IHS Markit的最新价格预测，今年布伦特原油价格将平均为每桶42.35美元，2021年为每桶49.25美元。与今年5月的预测相比，布伦特原油明年的价格将上调7美元。

在经历了4月份最严重的需求崩盘之后，石油市场目前正“处于一个微妙的转折点，正过渡到IHS Markit预期的复苏第二阶段。”

最近几周，原油价格相对稳定，布伦特原油交易价格处在每桶40- 45美元的窄幅区间。IHS Markit金融服务副总裁罗杰·迪万近日在一份报告中表示，布伦特原油价格“可能在2021年下半年最终突破每桶50美元大关”。

根据IHS Markit的统计数据，如果COVID-19疫情没有出现第二波可能导致经济大范围关闭的大范围爆发，那么布伦特原油价格在未来4个季度平均将维持在每桶40- 47美元的区间。

这家咨询公司表示，目前的市场基本面不利于油价跳升，因为欧佩克+和北美产油国在7月和8月将给市场每天带来400万桶左右的原油产量。与此同时，有迹象显示，石油需求复苏正陷入停滞，而中国创纪录的原油购买狂潮可能即将结束。

IHS Markit 说：“只要油价维持在目前的区间，对需求的担忧就可能有助于维持(欧佩克+协议的进程。当油价超过50美元/桶时，有可能推高美国的资本支出，那就是讨论的基调发生变化的时候，兴趣的分歧可能开始显现。”

路透社日前对分析师和经济学家进行的月度调查显示，如果今年下半年全球石油需求复苏没有出现实质性的回升，油价不太可能比目前的水平高很多。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Prices Could Break $50 In 2021

Brent Crude prices are set to average $42.35 a barrel this year and $49.25 per barrel in 2021, according to IHS Markit’s latest price forecast, which was raised by $7 a barrel for next year compared to the previous projection in May.

After the worst of the demand crash in April, oil markets are now “at a delicate pivot point as they transition to phase II” of the recovery expected by IHS Markit.

In recent weeks, oil prices have been relatively stable, with Brent Crude trading in the narrow $40-$45 per barrel range. The price of Brent “could conclusively pass the $50 per barrel mark in the second half of 2021,” Roger Diwan, vice president financial services at IHS Markit, said in a note on Thursday.

Brent Crude prices are expected to remain in the $40-$47 per barrel price range on average over the next four quarters, if there isn’t a major second wave of COVID-19 that could prompt widespread economic shutdowns, according to IHS Markit.

The current market fundamentals are not conducive to a jump in oil prices as OPEC+ and North American producers are bringing back a total of around 4 million bpd on the market in July and August, the consultancy says. At the same time, there are signs of stalling oil demand recovery, while China’s record crude buying spree may be coming to an end.

“As long as prices hold in the current range, demand concerns will likely help keep the [OPEC+] agreement on course. When prices surpass $50/bbl, potentially lifting capital spending in the United States higher, that is when changes to the tenor of the discussion, and the divergence of interest could start to play out,” Diwan said.

Oil prices are unlikely to go much higher than current levels if global oil demand recovery doesn’t pick up in a meaningful way in the second half of the year, the monthly Reuters poll of analysts and economists showed last week.