原油产量反弹令油价前景堪忧

据8月28日MENAFN消息：尽管美国原油库存连续六周收缩，但油价仍从月度新高(43.78美元)回落，能源价格可能在未来几天继续走强，原因是石油输出国组织(欧佩克)逐渐收回针对疫情的自愿减产。

油价可能会继续从3月份的高点(48.66美元)回落，因为它突破了本月早些时候的价格波动区间，而联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议的进展对原油价格的复苏细节没有什么帮助，尽管欧佩克及其盟友观察到一些市场状况逐渐改善的迹象，包括2020年7月的库存增加出现逆转，以及全球石油供需缺口缩小。

欧佩克及其盟国或将在今年余下的时间里继续进行协调，因为八月JMMC会议的新闻稿强调了“合作宣言在支持全球石油平衡方面的持续积极贡献”。但是随着俄罗斯最大石油生产商之一卢克石油等公司在8月初增产，疫情补偿机制的失效可能会影响原油价格的复苏。

欧佩克最新月度石油市场报告指出：“预计2020年世界石油需求将减少910万桶/天，与上月的评估相比，下调约0.1万桶/天。”

最新数据说明，下调主要是为了反映一些非经合组织国家2020年第二季度的数据弱于预期，此外还考虑到最近对2020年全球国内生产总值的调整，从7月的-3.7%调整到8月的-4.0%

反过来，尽管随着全球产量似乎在8月触底，美国原油库存持续萎缩，但几乎没有迹象表明V形复苏可能会对石油带来阻力。

实际上，截至8月21日的一周，美国库存减少4.689万桶，而此前一周库存减少1.632万桶，但能源信息署(EIA)发布的最新数据显示，产量自2月下旬以来首次增加，从截至8月14日一周的1070万桶/天增加升至1080万桶/天。

尽管如此，原油产量的进一步反弹可能拖累油价，因为长期复苏的迹象抑制了全球需求的前景。

冯娟 摘译自 MENAFN

原文如下:

Oil Price Outlook Mired by Rebound in Crude Production

The price of oil pulls back from a fresh monthly high ($43.78) even though US Crude Inventories contract for six consecutive weeks, and energy prices may continue to consolidate over the coming days as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gradually rollback the voluntary production cuts in response to COVID-19.

The price of oil may continue to retrace the decline from the March high ($48.66) as it breaks out of the range bound price action from earlier this month, with the developments coming out of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting doing little to detail the recovery in crude prices even though OPEC and its allies 'observed that there are some signs of gradually improving market conditions, including the inventory build in July 2020 being reversed and the lessening of the gap between global oil demand and supply.'

It seems as though as OPEC and its allies will continue to coordinate throughout the remainder of the year as the press rerelease from the August JMMC meeting emphasizes the 'ongoing positive contributions of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting a rebalancing of the global oil market,' but the expiration of the COVID-19 compensation mechanism may rattle the recovery in crude prices as companies like Lukoil, one of Russia's largest oil producer, increased production in earlier August according to the company's second quarter earnings report.

It remains to be seen if demand will continue to recover ahead of the next JMMC meeting scheduled for September 16-17 as OPEC's most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) states that 'world oil demand in 2020 is estimated to decrease by 9.1 mb/d, adjusted lower by around 0.1 mb/d ascompared to last month's assessment.'

The update goes onto say that 'the downward revision is mainly to reflect weaker-than-expected data in 2Q20 in a few non-OECD countries, in addition to considering the recent adjustment to global GDP in 2020 from -3.7% in July to -4.0% in August.'

In turn, little signs of a V-shape recovery may produce headwinds for oil despite the ongoing contraction in US Crude Inventories as global production appears to have bottomed in August.

In fact, US stockpiles narrowed 4689K in the week ending August 21 after contracting 1632K the week prior, but the fresh figures coming out of the Energy Information Energy (EIA) showed production increasing for the first time since late-February, with weekly output climbing to 10,800K b/d from 10,700K b/d in the week ending August 14.

With that said, a further rebound in crude production may drag on the price of oil as signs of a protracted recovery dampens the outlook for global demand.