EIA：预计今年全球石油日需求将减少810万桶

据全球能源新闻网8月29日报道，EIA预计，高库存水平和过剩的原油生产能力将限制未来几个月油价的上行压力，但随着2021年库存下降，这些上行压力将增加。EIA估计，今年上半年，全球液体燃料库存以每天640万桶的速度增长，今年下半年将以每天420万桶的速度下降，2021年将每天下降80万桶。

EIA估计，7月份全球石油和液体燃料的日均需求量为9340万桶。与2019年7月相比，日需求减少了910万桶，但比今年第二季度的日均8500万桶有所上升，今年第二季度日需求同比减少1580万桶。EIA预测，今年全球石油和液体燃料的日均消费量将为9310万桶，较2019年减少810万桶，2021年将增加700万桶。与新冠疫情相关的经济活动减少，导致2020年能源供需格局发生变化。

据EIA估计，2020年第二季度全球液体燃料的日均产量为9180万桶，同比下降860万桶。产量的下降反映了欧佩克和其同盟国欧佩克+自愿减产，以及美国因低油价而减少钻井活动和减产。在预测中，全球石油供应将在2020年第三季度继续下降到9040万桶/天，然后2021年将上升到年均9940万桶/天。

郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网

原文如下：

EIA – GLOBAL OIL DEMAND EXPECTED TO DECLINE BY 8.1 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2020

中国石化新闻网讯

EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase. EIA estimates global liquid fuels inventories rose at a rate of 6.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2020 and expects they will decline at a rate of 4.2 million b/d in the second half of 2020 and then decline by 0.8 million b/d in 2021.

EIA estimates that demand for global petroleum and liquid fuels averaged 93.4 million b/d in July. Demand was down 9.1 million b/d from July 2019, but it was up from an average of 85.0 million b/d during the second quarter of 2020, which was down 15.8 million b/d from year-ago levels. EIA forecasts that consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels globally will average 93.1 million b/d for all of 2020, down 8.1 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 7.0 million b/d in 2021. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy supply and demand patterns in 2020.

EIA estimates that global liquid fuels production averaged 91.8 million b/d in the second quarter of 2020, down 8.6 million b/d year over year. The decline reflects voluntary production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+), and reductions in drilling activity and production curtailments in the United States because of low oil prices. In the forecast, the global supply of oil continues to decline to 90.4 million b/d in the third quarter of 2020 before rising to an annual average of 99.4 million b/d in 2021.