过去4个月全球石油需求平均日增1300万桶

据今日石油2020年8月31日报道，根据IHS Markit日前发表的一份最新分析报告，自新冠肺炎疫情在4月份导致的石油需求崩溃触底以来，世界石油需求正以创纪录的速度增长——在过去4个月里平均每天增加了1300万桶。但是，随着全球原油需求停滞在略低于新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的水平，预计这一增长速度将逐渐放缓。

随着一些限制放宽，全球石油需求从5月份到7月份出现了大幅增长，目前全球石油需求已达到去年水平的89%，而4月份为78%。

IHS Markit预计，到2021年第一季度，全球石油需求增长将放缓，并稳定在9200万- 9500万桶/天或约为上年水平的92%-95%的水平上。

预计造成全球石油需求增长将放缓的主要原因是旅行——特别是空中旅行和乘公交车上下班——在疫情得到控制和疫苗得到广泛供应之前仍将受到抑制。

IHS Markit副总裁兼石油市场主管Jim Burkhard说：“世界石油需求已从崩盘时的最低点迅速上升，这将导致石油需求的全面回升，至少目前是这样。但要想需求完全恢复，旅行——尤其是航空旅行和乘公交车上下班往返——需要恢复正常。而这在病毒得到控制和有效的疫苗出现之前是不会发生的。”

李峻 编译自 今日石油

原文如下：

World oil demand has grown by 13 million bpd over last 4 months – to plateau just below pre-COVID levels

World oil demand has grown at a record pace—by 13 million barrels per day in the last four months—since the bottom of the COVID-induced collapse in April. But that pace of growth is expected to taper off with global crude demand plateauing just below pre-pandemic levels, according to a new analysis by IHS Markit.

Global crude demand surged from May to July with the easing of some COVID-19 restrictions and now rests at 89% of prior year levels–compared to being at 78% in April.

IHS Markit expects demand growth to wane and plateau at 92-95 mbd (or roughly 92-95% of prior year levels) through the first quarter of 2021.

The main cause for the pause is expected to be travel—especially air travel and commuting to work—remaining subdued until COVID-19 is contained and are vaccines widely available.

“The meteoric rise of world oil demand from the lowest lows of the COVID crash is going to come up just short of a full comeback, at least for now. For demand to fully return, travel—especially air travel and commuting to work—needs to get back normal. And that won’t happen until there is containment of the virus and effective vaccines,” said Jim Burkhard, IHS Markit Vice President and head of oil markets.