疫情能否成为数字炼油时代发展契机

据ETEnergyWorld 9月2日新德里报道，供应中断以及随之而来的未来不确定性，往往是最有力的变革催化剂。对于老牌航空公司而言，供应中断预示着廉价航空公司的到来，正如Uber和Airbnb等共享资产平台的引入是交通和旅游业变革的预兆。碳氢化合物行业，特别是炼油厂，长期以来一直抵制变革，尽管它们面临着电动车、气候行动、国际海事组织(IMO)的规定以及向新燃料标准(如BS VI)的过渡等方面的阻力。然而，后疫情时代的不确定性及其对燃料需求波动的长期影响，最终可能会迈向一个人们期待已久的真正的 "数字炼油厂"。

今年4月，在产品库存成本激增的情况下，疫情见证了民用燃料需求同比下降46%的空前局面。随着多地开放局部商业流动，尽管7月对运输燃料平均需求量上升至COVID前的85%左右，但必须承认，燃料需求正在“复苏”，但不一定是“恢复”。我们很可能会继续看到不同地方反复停航，比如最近一次的北京停飞，导致50%以上的航班取消，学校重新停课，交通拥堵状况迅速改善。对于一个见证历史上需求偏差在极窄范围内的行业来说，它将需要一个全新的DNA来应对未来大幅放大的峰值和低谷。

只是可以肯定的是，当数字化和人工智能面临多个业务变量、动态变化和高度不确定性时，它们就变得至关重要。展望未来，有几个重大的根本性变化有望在燃料领域中创造出这样一个环境。

沈韩晔 摘译自 ETEnergyWorld

原文如下：

Opinion: Can the Covid crisis usher in the age of the digital refinery

Disruptions, and subsequent future uncertainties, are often the most forceful catalysts for change. For established airlines the disruption was the advent of no-frills low cost airlines, as was introduction of shared-asset platforms such as Uber and Airbnb the harbinger of change for mobility and travel industries. The hydrocarbon sector, and specifically refineries, have long resisted change, even as they have faced headwinds in the form of electric vehicles, climate action, IMO regulations and, closer to home, transition to new fuel standards like BS VI, among others. The uncertainties of the post Covid world, with its long ranged implication on fuel demand volatility, however, may finally bring in a much awaited move towards true ‘digital refineries’.

Covid-19 oversaw an unprecedented domestic fuel demand slippage of 46 percent in April on YoY basis amidst surging product inventory costs. While the average demand for transportation fuels increased in July to around 85 per cent of the pre-COVID levels as multiple cities opened up to localized business mobility, it is critical to acknowledge that the fuel demand is “recovering”, but not necessarily “recovered”. We will likely continue to see repeated shutdowns in different locales, such as the most recent one in Beijing, which caused a cancellation of more than 50 per cent of flights, schools to be re-shut, and traffic congestion to rapidly decline; oil demand is expected to have dropped to 100 kbd on this shutdown alone. For an industry that has historically witnessed demand deviations within very narrow ranges, it would require an entirely new DNA to tackle a future with significantly amplified spikes and troughs.

Just to be sure, “digital” and AI become crucial when one is faced with multiple business variables, moving dynamically and with a high degree of uncertainty. There are a few major fundamental changes that are expected to create such an environment in the fuel world, going forward.