MUFG预测2020年布伦特原油均价为46.2美元

据9月3日Trade Arabia消息：日本银行控股和金融服务公司三菱UFJ金融集团(MUFG)最新的《石油市场周报》称，布伦特原油预计将在2020年第三季度末达到每桶44.1美元，第四季度达到每桶48.7美元。报告指出，预计2020年全年布伦特原油平均价格为每桶46.2美元。而2021年布伦特原油的平均价格预测将维持在56.6美元。

MUFG在报告中表示:“我们对油价的预估明显转向看涨，主要反映了三个方面的发展。"

"首先，自6月初以来，基本面趋紧，投资者对石油市场的热情日益高涨，导致市场出现赤字。

其次，美元持续贬值(美元疲软使以美元计价的大宗商品相对而言更便宜)，目前油价与美元的负相关性达到近8年高点。

第三，沙特原油的官方售价(OSP)仍低于历史平均水平，旨在以具有竞争力的有利水平出售，以提振需求。”

冯娟 摘译自 Trade Arabia

原文如下:

Brent crude to average $46.2 in 2020: MUFG

Brent crude is expected to reach $44.1 per barrel (/b) towards the end of the third quarter (Q3) of 2020 and $48.7/b in Q4, a report said, noting that Brent is forecasted to average $46.2/b for 2020 as a whole.

For 2021, the average forecast for Brent is maintained at $56.6, said the latest Oil Market Weekly report from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a Japanese bank holding and financial services company

“Our oil price conviction is emphatically shifting more bullish, reflecting three developments,” MUFG said in the report.

“First, tightening fundamentals with investors increasingly embracing the oil markets move into deficit since early June.

“Second, ongoing US dollar ($) depreciation (a weak $ makes $ priced commodities cheaper to purchase on a relative basis) – with the negative oil-$ correlation currently at a near eight year high.

“Third, the official selling price (OSP) for Saudi crude remains below historical averages, in a bid to sell at competitively favourable levels to prop-up demand,” it added.